BTC's emotional barrier

also: stablecoin use, tokenization trials, media bias

Never mistake a clear view for a short distance. – Paul Saffo ||

Hi everyone, I hope you all had a great weekend! It’s not every day we see science take a great leap forward.

Below, I dive into the bigger reason why BTC has been doing not much at all over the past few months (just as it seems to be enjoying a rally, let’s hope it lasts!). I also look at signs of life in the EU DLT Pilot Regime, at more signs that stablecoins are for more than crypto trading, and at the depressing state of trust in mainstream media.

Programming note: I’m in London and Edinburgh next week, and so I’ll have to miss a few days of publication – for now, I’m planning to publish on Wednesday, but will be taking the rest of the week off. Thanks for your understanding! 😊

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• BTC’s emotional barrier

• Stablecoin use: not just trading

• EU DLT Pilot Regime gets moving

• The loss of media trust: sad but inevitable

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

BTC’s emotional barrier

In a bewildering display of stubbornness, BTC is still refusing to acknowledge the continued buildup of tailwinds that should be helping it deliver on the promise of “Uptober”.

I mean, really. We have runaway deficits with unavoidable currency debasement.

We have the increasingly likely escalation of conflict, with news out this morning from the Middle East (the US is deploying missile defence systems and troops to Israel, Iran is threatening US troops helping with Israel’s defence) and Asia (China is encircling Taiwan with “military drills”, there is unusual mobilization on the North Korean border).

We also have new onramps bubbling up in South East Asia, with news out last week that Thailand’s SEC is proposing new rules that allow funds to invest in crypto ETFs, and South Korea is looking into reversing a crypto ETF ban. These are not tiny markets.

We have interest rates finally coming down in most economies which should boost liquidity, or at least liquidity sentiment, in many markets.

And we have the swing in the US presidential polls that put Trump several points ahead of Harris. This holds for prediction markets as well as three “who will you vote for?” polls. Given his professed support for the development of the crypto ecosystem and his hostility to over-regulation, a Trump victory would be a better outcome for the crypto industry.

(chart via Kalshi)

Earlier this morning, BTC showed some signs of reawakening with a 3% jump in the space of an hour followed by a continued climb – but we’ve seen these before, and it’s too soon to know if this one will hold.

(chart via TradingView)

Even if this is the beginning of the rally we’ve been waiting for, why has it taken so long? What has been holding BTC back these past weeks/months?