The reprieve that isn’t really

plus, CPI, BTC, Russia, Iran and more

"You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete." – R. Buckminster Fuller ||

Hello everyone! I hope you’re all doing ok, and whatever your stress level, at least appreciating this wild ride.

The latest Bits & Bips episode is out, in which James Seyffart, Alex Kruger, Ram Ahluwalia and myself have an intense discussion about the market volatility, the impact on crypto, and where it could go from here. You can watch that here, or listen here (Spotify link).

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• The reprieve that isn’t really

• Macro-Crypto Bits: markets, CPI, Russia, Iran and more

If you’re not a premium subscriber, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You get ~daily commentary on markets, tokenization, regulation and other signs that crypto IS impacting the macro landscape. As well as relevant links and music recommendations ‘cos why not.

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

The reprieve that isn’t really

After some alarming moves in the US treasury market (which I covered yesterday), President Trump changed his mind on the tariffs that went into effect at just past midnight the night before.

In a somewhat furious post on Truth Social, he announced that tariffs on China are upped to 125%. But the application of tariff rates above 10% are delayed by 90 days.

Markets celebrated. The S&P jumped 9.5% in a move that feels largely driven by short covering, delivering the largest swing since 2008.

(chart via Bloomberg)

The Nasdaq soared by over 12%, its best day since 2001.

(Nasdaq chart via TradingView)

Yet, unfortunately, this feels like a relief rally rather than a sustainable change of direction.

The vulnerability