Traditional safe havens go haywire

... but not BTC ... plus, de-dollarization, realignment, macro and more

“The future ain't what it used to be.” – Yogi Berra ||

Hi everyone, and congratulations on making it to Friday!!! A sigh of relief all around. This week has been a marathon-length sprint and you’re probably as exhausted as I am.

And next week will be shorter as it’s the Easter holiday where I am and I’ll be taking a much-needed few days off – details to come.

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• Traditional safe havens go haywire

• Macro-Crypto Bits: PPI, tariffs, realignment, activity slowing and more

If you’re not a premium subscriber, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You get ~daily commentary on markets, tokenization, regulation and other signs that crypto IS impacting the macro landscape. As well as relevant links and music recommendations ‘cos why not.

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

Traditional safe havens go haywire

… and de-dollarization gains momentum

Economic theory suggests that tariffs boost the currency of the imposing country, by reducing the amount that flows offshore. And many of the economists behind Trump’s grand strategy insisted that a dollar appreciation would offset any hit to the consumer of higher prices, by reducing the dollar value of the imported good.

Only, yeah, that’s not working out as planned. Earlier today, the DXY dollar index dipped below 100 and stayed there for the first time in over three years.

(DXY dollar index chart via TradingView)

According to a Bloomberg analysis, the speed of the sentiment shift for the US currency is the most extreme on record.

This is happening at a time bond yields are increasing – normally, higher yields attract foreign funds, boosting the dollar’s value. Not this time. We’re seeing a broad exit from US “safe haven” assets.

The superlatives continue: over the past few days, the yield on the US 10-year treasury saw its steepest weekly jump since 2001. The yield on the 30-year treasury saw its steepest weekly climb since the 1980s, reaching levels not seen since the Great Financial Crisis.