A stablecoin engine + crypto funding

also, power outages, crypto in space, macro mudslides and more

“If all else fails, immortality can always be assured by spectacular error.” – John Kenneth Galbraith ||

Hello everyone!!! I hope you’re all doing well!

I have been writing this newsletter now for over two-and-a-half years, and I pride myself on the fact that I have never, not once, skipped publication without letting y’all know ahead of time.

Until yesterday.

At just past 12:30pm, I was tapping away on my keyboard when my screen went black. I thought it was a computer issue, so I hit a few random keys (as one does), and it came back on but in battery mode, which I though was odd. I went out into the hall as husband emerged from kitchen to inform me the power had gone out, and that it looked like it was the whole building. This happens every now and then, not a big deal, it’s usually swiftly resolved.

I texted my son who had decided to go into his office rather than work from home, congratulating him on his call because the power was out. “Here too,” he answered. I looked out the window and noticed the traffic lights were down. Hunh.

At that stage I was still able to connect to X, so a quick search revealed that it was all of Madrid, and over the next few minutes, reports surfaced of other Spanish areas without power. Soon we heard the same about parts of France and Portugal. This was no longer just a power outage, this was something different.

It wasn’t long before I lost all mobile connection. While standing at my living room window, transfixed by the chaos unfurling in the street below, I heard my neighbours on the landing. They had a battery-powered radio, so we all stood huddled around it in the dark hoping for news.

Reports soon came in of power outages in Morocco, Andorra, even Croatia. Most of that was probably not true – exaggeration spreads fast, but you can appreciate the alarm. This kicked up a notch when officials started mentioning the word “cyberattack”.

We still don’t know the full story, but the narrative is now leaning towards an inherent vulnerability in renewable grids. Who knew. Just last week, Spain was bragging about having its first fully renewable-powered day. Coincidence? Assuming not, the repercussions are immense.

Power was re-established across the country neighbourhood by neighbourhood, with mine being one of the last – the lights came back on at around 11:00pm at night. Cell service had been restored moments before, but I am still without internet, so today’s newsletter will be put together using a frustratingly slow mobile hotspot. We’ve been told there may be further outages as the grid continues to power up.

The biggest lesson of yesterday (apart from the stupidity of believing renewable grids without nuclear power are reliable) is that a safety wad of cash hidden somewhere at home is essential, as is a battery-powered radio. The lack of electricity was less frustrating for me than the lack of news.

I’m grateful I was at home when it happened – my heart goes out to all those stuck on trains. I’m grateful I have such wonderful neighbours. I’m grateful to have a gas hob on which I could make coffee. And I’m grateful it was “just this”. But, what a day…

Production note: It’s a public holiday here on Thursday and Friday, but since I didn’t publish yesterday, I’ll only be taking Friday off.

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• Coming up: GDP, PCE, jobs, refunding and more

• Stripe: A stablecoin engine

• Reading the crypto funding tea leaves

• Crypto in space

If you’re not a premium subscriber, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You get ~daily commentary on markets, tokenization, regulation and other signs that crypto IS impacting the macro landscape. As well as relevant links and music recommendations ‘cos why not.

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

Coming up: GDP, PCE, jobs, refunding and more

This is a packed week.

Today we get the latest confidence index from the US Conference Board, expected to show continued decline. No surprise there.

We also get data on US job openings, which should show some softening.

Tomorrow we get the first read of US GDP for Q1, with consensus expectations pointing to 0.4%, a sharp slowdown from Q4’s 2.4%. If accurate, this would be the lowest annualized growth in almost three years. (See below for 2025 forecasts and recession probabilities.)

(chart via Bloomberg)

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model expects a much lower reading of -0.4%. While the actual number, whatever it is, will most likely undergo considerable revision given the heightened uncertainty, a negative shock here could jolt already brittle markets.