2025 predictions

and 2024's books, movies, series...

“For last year's words belong to last year's language
And next year's words await another voice.” – TS Eliot, Little Gidding ||

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Hello, everyone, and HAPPY NEW YEAR’S EVE!

It’s hard to believe that this year is almost over. Remember our collective trepidation at the end of 2023? How we fretted about an intense schedule of elections (virtually all incumbents were voted out), we were convinced a US recession was imminent (it wasn’t), we worried that the war in Ukraine would never end (it now looks like it might), we thought the conflict in the Middle East would impact oil prices and possibly strengthen Iran (it didn’t, and no-one foresaw the collapse of Syria’s dictatorship).

I distinctly remember a mood of concern last New Years’ Eve. But we toasted anyway, and tentatively wished each other “better” times. For many, 2024 delivered on that – but by no means for all, and there is still much to be nervous about. Such are the winds of change. Collectively, we cope and, eventually, we thrive, because change brings opportunity. Always.

Today’s email is short as my head is already in the evening’s celebration and in paying respects to what has been a momentous year for me personally and for my family. So much to be grateful for. ❤

Below, I offer my 2025 predictions, because why not – these lists mean little but they are fun to read in the moment and look back on later.

I also share my “best of” non-crypto and non-macro pursuits of the year: books, movies, etc. Again, fun to read and to look back on, even though many candidates undeservedly remain in the margins.

From the bottom of my heart, I hope you embrace the change of calendar with pride and intention – we all achieved stuff this year, we all learnt so much, and we have so much more to do in months to come. Bring on 2025, and may it be a meaningful year.

Programming note: This newsletter will be taking tomorrow and Thursday off – back on Friday, January 3rd!

(No audio versions until next week as I don’t have access to my recording equipment until then, sorry!)

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• 2025 predictions

• Best of: 2024’s books, movies, series

If you’re not a premium subscriber, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You get ~daily commentary on markets, tokenization, regulation and other signs that crypto IS impacting the macro landscape. As well as audio, relevant links and music recommendations ‘cos why not.

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

2025 predictions

In previous years, I’ve been reluctant to write out a list of predictions as they’ve always felt more like guesses given how young (yes, still) and therefore also fast-moving the industry is. This is especially true given what feels like a rapidly approaching inflection point for both regulation and development. Put differently, next year will see a lot of change, even more than usual, and it’s anyone’s guess as to its form and impact.

That said, I enjoy reading the lists of others, even if the following year it turns out that most are wrong. Venture investor Nic Carter bravely shared his 2024 predictions scorecard – he got around half right, which is actually pretty good. It’s also a reminder that even those of us who have been in the industry for a long time don’t have anything even close to a crystal ball.

So, it is in the spirit of list-shaped fun that I share my expectations for 2025, keeping it to 15 – and, this time next year, I hope I’m not excruciatingly embarrassed when it comes time to confess my lack of accuracy. Some of them may feel easy, but we’ve learnt that consensus expectations have a way of being yanked out from underneath us.

Still, here goes:

1) No Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. I’ve written before about why I don’t think it will happen: too complex for Congress to get behind, too controversial to get enough buy-in for the necessary investment of time and political capital, too low on the Administration’s priority list. Longer-term, this is good news – the concentration risk is real. Short-term, it could be that approval was priced in which will be unwound as hopes wane. But I doubt that conviction extends much beyond a handful of Bitcoin enthusiasts.

2) The US will hold on to most of its current BTC stash, as well as crypto assets seized in future law-enforcement operations.

3) At least three more nation states will reveal holdings of BTC.

4) Stablecoin legislation is passed in the US. This is the “low hanging fruit” of crypto-related regulation, with the concepts relatively limited and widely understood. What’s more, it will allow issuance from non-banks, and Tether will find a way to comply, paving the way to offering USDT issuance and redemption in the US.

5) A comprehensive crypto bill will be proposed and will possibly pass through the House, but will not get through the full approval process until 2026.

6) The ETH spot ETFs will be allowed to distribute staking rewards.