A year ago: a different type of turmoil
Plus: Hong Kong banks and DLT, slippery market sentiment, and more
“We think in generalities, but we live in detail.” – Alfred North Whitehead ||
Hi everyone! Outside my window I have blue skies, and there are green buds on the trees, daisies poking out of the grass. Finally. I hope you also have some encouraging weather where you are.
Production note: I have to skip tomorrow’s publication as I’m travelling. I do plan to publish the free weekly on Saturday, however, internet connection permitting.
PUBLISHED IN PARTNERSHIP WITH: ✨ ALLIUM ✨
As traditional finance and crypto converge, trusted data is the missing infrastructure layer. Allium provides this data foundation for teams like Visa, Stripe and Grayscale.
The latest whitepaper published with BCG, Stablecoin Payments: The Truth Behind the Numbers, examines how stablecoins are being used in the real economy today. The analysis estimates $350–550B in on-chain payments in 2025, led by $150–230B in B2B activity, with consumer flows contributing another $200–320B.
If you’re producing institutional crypto research or analytics, start with trusted data. Explore a live demo.
IN THIS NEWSLETTER:
A year ago: a different type of turmoil
Geopolitics, crypto blues, Tether and Bitcoin, and more
Hong Kong banks and DLT innovation
Markets: slippery sentiment
Crypto is Macro Now offers ~daily commentary and updates on the overlap between the crypto and macro landscapes. Plus links and more.
If you’re a premium subscriber, thank you!! ❤
WHAT I’M WATCHING:
✨ Use the discount code MACRO for 20% off! ✨
A year ago: a different type of turmoil
(This is part of a regular feature in which I look back at what I was writing about this time last year, to see how narratives have shifted and to follow up on intriguing developments.)
Geopolitical panic
This time a year ago, the realization had started to sink in that the world was careening into a new order.
President Trump kicked off a trade war by slapping 10% tariffs on China, 25% on close allies Canada and Mexico. Retaliatory tariffs and angry words flowed, as did red candles on price charts.
Especially interesting was the unusually harsh Chinese reaction when their tariffs were suddenly doubled, which used much stronger wording than their objection to this month’s bombing of Iran, one of their main oil suppliers – further confirmation it does not feel threatened by the Middle East conflict and is ready to ride this out.
(post by @ChineseEmbinUS)
Other geopolitical earthquakes of that period include the suspension by President Trump of intelligence sharing with Ukraine, setting a clear break with precedent and sending a signal that the equation of support had changed. France offered to become Europe’s “nuclear umbrella”, adding an unwelcome flex to the European power vacuum. Meanwhile, the EU and some member states started talking about eye-watering expenditure levels to boost defence and infrastructure (€800 billion from the EU, €900 billion from Germany) despite deepening divisions and political constraints.
Markets understandably freaked out, the DXY fell (but would remain above 100 until mid-April), the S&P 500 dropped, treasuries rose, BTC headed down – but all this was nothing compared to the market turmoil that lay in wait the following month.
The trade war (Mar 2025)
Tectonic plates are shifting (Mar 2025)
