Between the cracks, the bigger picture emerges

Plus, even more tariffs, market moves, CPI and other stuff

“There is a crack in everything, it’s how the light gets in.” – Leonard Cohen ||

Hello everyone! I hope you’re all taking care of yourselves.

This has been a week for the history books. And we’re only halfway through.

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• Coming up: CPI, PPI, vibes and more

• Between the cracks, the bigger picture emerges

• Macro-Crypto Bits: Tariffs, Markets

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WHAT I’M WATCHING:

Coming up: CPI, PPI, vibes and more

• Today, we get the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting, which should give a hint as to how worried Fed officials are about inflation and the impact of tariffs.

• Tomorrow, we get the US CPI data for March. Consensus forecasts point to a slight declaration in the core index growth, from 3.1% to 3.0% - good, but not enough for the Fed to feel any relief.

(chart via Bloomberg)

• On Friday, we get the March US PPI figures, a gauge of wholesale inflation, with the core index expected to show an acceleration. Not great, since this feeds into the Fed’s preferred PCE inflation gauge.

• Also on Friday, we get the latest University of Michigan consumer survey, which just might show a dampening of inflation expectations – but how likely is that in this environment, really.

• Finally, Friday brings the kick-off of Q1 earnings reports, with announcements from JPMorgan Chase, Bank of New York Mellon, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo and others.

• And throughout this week, we can expect more words from Fed speakers emphasizing patience tinged with concern.

Between the cracks, the bigger picture emerges

This week in particular, it feels sort of pointless to write about markets since they are moving so fast. Often, what I start typing in the morning is irrelevant by the time I hit publish, and even more so by the time you read this. I feel like I’m trying to report on a Formula 1 race, only one that doesn’t have a finish line and in which the participants keep changing.

But it is important to cover what is going on with prices because they are the clearest sign we have of an accelerating bigger picture shift.

Put differently, markets these days are not so much the “canary in the coal mine” as the doorbell ringing because the movers are here.

Some big cracks