“Most people spend more time and energy going around problems than in trying to solve them.” – Henry Ford
Hello everyone! I hope you’re all taking care of yourselves – it got chilly fast where I am. Bringing out the winter sweaters this weekend.
IN THIS NEWSLETTER
Bitcoin: narratives and volatility
Some good reads
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While the circulating supply of stablecoins from Tether and Circle dropped by $4 billion in the first 9m of 2026, overall supply increased by $1.2 billion (0.4%) and the number of issuers with more than $1 billion outstanding climbed to 15, up from 11 in 2025.
Download Allium’s State of Stablecoins and Payments Q3 2026.
And get weekly onchain data and more analysis like this from the Allium Research team on Substack.
WHAT I’M WATCHING
Bitcoin: narratives and volatility
Bitcoin appears to be in an interesting transition phase: the narratives are getting more positive, but market metrics aren’t.
In previous cycles, it would be the other way around – the numbers would trigger the narratives. But this time, BTC signals have been ok but not notable, while big institutions are putting out eye-catching reports and launching new products.
A clue as to why this feels different is in the above sentence: “big institutions”. We can’t deny that the BTC market is much more institutional now than in previous cycles – more on the sell-side than the buy-side. Put differently, several large firms offer investment vehicles or research linked to the price of BTC, which can influence coverage (I’m not casting aspersions, but I used to work sell-side and unless incentives have changed a lot…).
That said, they do influence the overall “mainstream” mood, while reducing the reputational risk of any professional manager considering an allocation.
