BTC sentiment: not frothy yet

plus, rates outlook, Amazon's blockchain experiment, and another take on gold vs BTC

“The only way to make sense out of change is to plunge into it, move with it, and join the dance.” – Alan Watts  ||

Hello everyone, I hope you’re doing well!

Wow, that BTC run.

Below, I share signs that this is not yet frothy, although a breather would be welcome. I also squint at what tomorrow’s inflation data could tell us about the outlook for rates. And I share an intriguing blockchain experiment from Amazon.

Since today’s newsletter is very chart-heavy, I won’t be doing an audio recording, it just wouldn’t read right. Plus, this will give me more time to dive into the frenzied activity around stablecoins, lots going on there.

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• BTC sentiment: not frothy yet

• Rates expectations on the move

• Tokenized receivables from the world’s largest marketplace

If you’re not a premium subscriber, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You get ~daily commentary on markets, tokenization, regulation and other signs that crypto IS impacting the macro landscape. As well as audio, relevant links and music recommendations ‘cos why not.

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

BTC sentiment: not frothy yet

It turns out that, in USD terms, yesterday was BTC’s strongest gain ever.

(table via @intangiblecoins)

In percentage terms, it was also spectacular, contributing to the strongest 7-day return (almost 30%) since the March 2023 banking crisis.

(chart via @VetleLunde)

Other assets have also had a good week: ETH is up 37%, DOGE is up 140%, and a long list of DeFi tokens as well as meme coins are up over 30%. The total capitalization of the crypto market passed $3 trillion for the first time since the November 2021 peak.

Of course, nothing goes up forever, and as I type, prices are pulling back a bit. This is healthy, not just because the market could use a breather, but also because investors who missed this run will no doubt take advantage of the opportunity to buy the dip. And with this momentum, there will be relatively few sellers as there is more career risk in missing a run than in getting out too late.

(BTC/USD chart via TradingView)

The recent move may seem frothy, but it is not yet leverage-driven, which suggests that full froth has not yet arrived.