China’s digital yuan changes shape
plus: the Big Deal of the week, quiet markets, US jobs (again), inflation and more
“I like nonsense; it wakes up the brain cells.” – Dr. Seuss ||
Hello everyone, and Happy Friday! The first week of 2026 in the bag. Let’s face it, the year has gotten off to an exhausting start (and that’s even after a short week for me!).
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IN THIS NEWSLETTER:
The big deal this week: geopolitics
Markets: quiet for now
China’s digital yuan changes shape
Tariff policy alternatives
Macro: trade and GDP
Macro: US job cuts
Macro: US wage inflation
Crypto is Macro Now offers ~daily commentary and updates on the overlap between the crypto and macro landscapes. Plus links, a music recommendation (‘cos why not?), and more.
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WHAT I’M WATCHING:
The big deal this week: geopolitics
(Trying out a new feature in which I have a think about what I see as the most significant development of the week for the crypto-macro narrative. What one thing has shaped the playing field for what’s ahead? Things are moving fast, it’s helpful to sometimes step back from the noise.)
The big deal for the first trading week of 2026 has to be the moving geopolitical pieces. The snatching of Maduro woke the world up to the new rules in which adversaries and allies are treated alike and protocol is an unnecessary distraction. It remains to be seen how much of a change in the lives of Venezuelans the US move implies – so far, democracy has not been restored and reports of continued repression on the ground suggest that hopes of a new dawn for the country will be disappointed.
Greenland is now more in play than ever, as we finally realize that President Trump is serious about taking it. It’s astonishing how mainstream media is largely ignoring the riots in Iran, which by all accounts are the most determined and widespread in recent memory. Taiwan is getting some attention but not a lot of love, and most of us seem to assume it will official be Chinese before long. Yesterday, Trump told the New York Times that there could be more US military action in Nigeria.
This matters for markets as dollar demand tends to spike in times of global unrest – not great for liquidity nor for commodities, although most are up on the week.
It matters for crypto as the uncertainty and likely crackdowns highlight the role of independent, resilient networks for transactions and communication, as well as the potential value of digital hard assets. Yet BTC is drifting, volumes are thin, derivatives markets are quiet. All very strange.
