Don’t expect tariff clarity

plus, BlackRock + Bitcoin, Middle East, stagflation and more

“People know what they do; frequently they know why they do what they do; but what they don't know is what what they do does.” – Michel Foucault ||

Hi everyone! I hope you’re all doing ok. I am making peace with the realization that news overwhelm is going to be the natural state of 2025. If you also find the chaos stressful, I’ve found the noise dims when you think in years, rather than weeks.

Later today, we’re doing a livestream for Bits & Bips! Come join myself, James Seyffart, Ram Ahluwalia and Quinn Thompson for a “Liberation Day” debate. We were going to kick off at 4:30pmET, but now that Trump’s tariff speech has been moved to 4pm, we’ll probably start later – no point in talking about what he said if he’s still saying it! You can sign up for a notification here.

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Production note: I won’t be able to publish tomorrow, apologies, am giving a talk in the morning – depending on market volatility and other news, I may be able to get something short out later in the day. If not, back on Friday!

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IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• Don’t expect tariff clarity

• BlackRock and Bitcoin

• Macro-Crypto Bits: US economic data, Middle East tension, a big crypto IPO

If you’re not a premium subscriber, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You get ~daily commentary on markets, tokenization, regulation and other signs that crypto IS impacting the macro landscape. As well as relevant links and music recommendations ‘cos why not.

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

Don’t expect tariff clarity

No doubt I’m not the only one looking forward to getting today’s buzz over with. “Liberation Day” is one of the worst mis-namings I have ever heard, as there’s nothing at all liberating about import taxes, but at 4:00pmET we can expect to hear about the additional revenue that some advisers seem to think will cover tax cuts, how mean other countries have been to the United States and how they will now cower, as well as how the move will improve the lives of working Americans and how dare you even suggest prices and unemployment will go up.

What there will not be much of is clarity, as the situation at the end of today is not necessarily going to be the same at the end of the week, month or year. I’ve maintained before that the uncertainty is the most corrosive aspect of the current strategy, as it deters action – bad news can be absorbed and dealt with, but the constant flip-flopping has weakened confidence that any decision will stick.

According to reports, the new US tariffs will go into effect at 12:01amET tomorrow morning, just hours after being announced. And, according to reports, as of late last night they had not yet been decided. Even once finalized, there is the possibility that President Trump will change his mind on something once up at the podium, who knows.

So, that suggests the tariffs will be simple rather than reciprocal, since even a team of brilliant coders and data people would struggle to get systems updated for anything overly complex in such a short period of time. Put differently, I’m starting to think we’re more likely to get a flat rate on everything to start with, or perhaps simple averages by region, and foreign trade representatives will then beat their way to the White House to negotiate.

Meanwhile, the spin machine is revving into overdrive, with the press secretary yesterday insisting it would be a “perfect deal for the American people and the American worker”.