Five years ago today, things changed

plus, crypto IPOs

“When you want to know how things really work, study them when they're coming apart.” – William Gibson ||

Hi everyone! I hope you’re all doing well.

Today, I look at what happened on February 19, 2020 – as many of you will remember, that day marked the last time the S&P 500 would reach an all-time high before plunging 34%. There was a set-up, there was a trigger, and of course, there were plenty of lessons learned.

Also, as today brings the listing of another crypto firm on a US stock exchange, I look at those likely to follow, and what that says about the sector’s evolution.

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• Five years ago today, things changed

• Crypto IPOs

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WHAT I’M WATCHING:

Five years ago today, things changed

On February 19, 2020, the S&P 500 reached a new all-time high of 3,383.10. Things were chaotic as always, politics was getting people upset as always, and there was ample concern about reports of a virus in China. But almost no-one realized what was about to happen.

The next day, stock markets started to show some weakness on fears the slowdown of activity in Asia could impact earnings.

Within just over a month, the S&P had lost 34%.

(S&P 500 in 2020, chart via TradingView)

Earlier that week, some analysts were suggesting the outbreak in China was being successfully contained and quarantines would soon be relaxed. Tech stocks were benefitting from earnings estimate upgrades, and monetary policy looked stable.

And yet, there were signs.