Friday, August 11, 2023

“You can observe a lot just by watching.” – Yogi Berra  ||

Hello everyone, and happy Friday!

You’re reading the premium daily version of Crypto is Macro Now. In this newsletter, I give some depth on factors I’m keeping an eye on that highlight the growing overlap between the crypto and macro landscapes – my focus is on how crypto is affecting the global economy, and vice versa. There is often a market discussion as well, because that is an important piece, not just for the structural changes but also for investor sentiment, which impacts attention and funding. Nothing I say is investment advice!

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Programming note: It’s a public holiday where I live on Tuesday, August 15th (Asunción de la Virgen, in case you’re curious), so this newsletter will be taking a break just on Tuesday. I also will be taking a week off later in August to decompress and refresh, but I’ll give you a heads-up about that next week.

IN THIS NEWSLETTER

• BTC spot ETF decision?

• CPI surprises – there were a couple

• Energy demand heading up

• Asian blockchain networks expand

WHAT I’M WATCHING

BTC spot ETF decision?

Sunday is the next deadline for an SEC comment on the current rash of BTC spot ETF filings, which means we could get something today.

Why it matters:

This would be for the ARK/21Shares filing, which got ahead of the others by modifying one already outstanding. It’s widely expected that the SEC will delay any decision, which would move the next deadline on this particular filing to November. This indecision is priced into the BTC market, which has not really moved at all despite the possibility of a BTC spot ETF in the US some time this year.

(chart via TradingView)

However, the SEC could throw a big wrench into expectations by either approving or denying the ARK/21Shares application. Given the low volumes and volatility in the market, you can imagine the fireworks if it’s the former. If we get a denial today, it’s not clear the market would dip given the absence of positive expectations priced in – but it probably would since, given the lackluster activity, it could be that traders are looking for an excuse to rotate into other assets.

An SEC comment sure would be one way to disturb what otherwise looks set up to be another sultry summer weekend for crypto markets. Personally, I’m not holding my breath, though. But I will be checking the screens every now and then just in case.