Friday, August 18, 2023

“All you really need to know for the moment is that the universe is a lot more complicated than you might think, even if you start from a position of thinking it's pretty damn complicated in the first place.” ― Douglas Adams ||

Hello everyone, and happy Friday! Of course, we can each pick our side, but I am rooting for Spain on Sunday! ⚽

You’re reading the premium daily version of Crypto is Macro Now. In this newsletter, I give some depth on factors I’m keeping an eye on that highlight the growing overlap between the crypto and macro landscapes – my focus is on how crypto is affecting the global economy, and vice versa. There is often a market discussion as well, because that is an important piece, not just for the structural changes but also for investor sentiment, which impacts attention and funding. Nothing I say is investment advice!

If you’ve read this far and are not a subscriber, I do hope you’ll consider becoming one! It would help enable me to continue doing this, which I would very much appreciate because I really do feel that the intersection I focus on matters, more now than ever. It’s a privilege to be able to talk to you daily about what I’m seeing – I’d love to be able to make this into a viable concern.

And if you find this newsletter useful, would you mind hitting the ❤ button at the bottom? I’m told it boosts the distribution algorithm.

Programming note: I’ll be taking a brief holiday starting tomorrow, Saturday 19th until the following Saturday 26th, inclusive. I knew markets would get dramatic as soon as I took some time off… but dang…

IN THIS NEWSLETTER

• What’s going on with BTC?

• The murky macro environment

• The ETF catalyst

• Turkey and its stubborn inflation

WHAT I’M WATCHING

What’s going on with BTC?

Of course, the day I’m getting ready to sign off for a week for a much-needed break, BTC implied volatility has its highest one-day jump of the year. Of course.

(chart via TradingView)

Why it matters:

Obviously, the sharp price move that triggered the volatility jump was not in the direction many would have liked. But it is not totally unexpected, nor is it particularly alarming.