Friday, May 10, 2024

the Apple ad and blockchain, debanking, floods, slipping USD hegemony, US GDP growth

“This isn't life in the fast lane, it's life in the oncoming traffic.” – Terry Pratchett ||

Hi, all! Happy Friday! I hope you have great things planned for the weekend, and that you get a chance to disconnect – it’s been quite the week.

Today’s newsletter feels unusually philosophical. I blame the Apple ad, it obviously triggered something. I hope you’ll bear with me.

In case you missed yesterday’s email, I won’t be able to do the daily audios for a while – logistics and bandwidth, sorry about that. I’m working on some other audio ideas, and I’ve started a new project I’ll be able to tell you about soon. The upside is this newsletter has a stricter publishing deadline now, of 8:30amET.

If you find this newsletter useful, would you mind sharing it with your friends and colleagues? ❤

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• The Apple ad and blockchain

• Debanking can come for you

• Floods and the global economy

• Saudi Arabia, Japan and the US dollar

• China, Serbia and the US dollar

• About those rate cuts…

If you’re not a subscriber to the premium daily, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You’ll get ~daily insight into the growing overlap between the crypto and macro landscapes, as well as some useful links. And there’s a free trial!

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

The Apple ad and blockchain

By now you’ve probably seen the new ad from Apple in which a hydraulic press crushes instruments, paint cans, juke boxes, adorable toys and so many more wonderful things, splintering, splattering and pulverizing them all into a flat, soulless screen. It is so very sad and disheartening, and yet another sign that Silicon Valley has no idea what people outside their echo chamber value. (I mean, ok, fine, Apple has apologized and promised to take it off the air – but who thought that ad was a good idea???)

I bring this up because the resulting feeling of despair is similar to that felt when I hear stupid things like “everything will be tokenized”. Or, even stupider, “blockchain will change everything”. Those saying things like that live in similar bubbles to the Silicon Valley self-styled gurus (sometimes they are the same people), breathing technology-infused air and drinking from the cup of self-importance.

You can’t tokenize a piano or a cuddly teddy bear, nor should you want to. Blockchain will not change how you love your dog or the energizing aroma of fresh coffee. Tools may influence environments, backgrounds, even history, but they do not become them. And the idea that they might is dystopian, even when talking about a tool you’re passionate about.

Because, in the end, this is a language of control. A tool can be decentralized, yet – if popular enough – its use will eventually be dominated by large purveyors of solutions we didn’t know we needed. The message is “we will make your life better/easier if you give us all of your attention, time and data”. The message is “you will eventually trust this new technology with everything that makes global and personal economies work, and we’re here to help, you can trust us, too”. And messages educate.

Don’t get me wrong, I am definitely pro-technology. I spend most of my time thinking about how distributed ledgers are changing the world, I’m excited about the potential, and I would love a new iPad. But inflated promises shape more than expectations, they also shape perception. And the result is the acceptance that technology can substitute for physical experiences, decentralized memories and the joy of anticipation. The result is a dependence that leaves us more vulnerable.

Imbuing technology with an omnipresence, even if only in hyperbole, helps to create a mindset of followers. The idea that one manufacturer can condense all cultural elements into a rectangle, the idea that one form of data distribution can assign a value to everything on earth, both assume that we want that kind of centralization (however decentralized). Both assume greater standardization would make our lives better, more productive, less distracted. Standardization is convenient, as is submission to authorities. But life is not all about convenience, however compact a shape it may come in.

So, enough with the suggestion that a small computer can contain all that represents human flourishing. Enough with the claim that tokenization is inevitable, everywhere. And let’s please recoil in discomfort at the implication that this technology, any technology, won’t create problems of its own.

Debanking can come for you

Most of us don’t think it could happen to us – debanking, that is. But if it can happen to Andy Haldane, former chief economist of the Bank of England, it can happen to anyone. He’s not suspected of money laundering or terrorism financing. He isn’t a crypto trader (that I know of!). He hasn’t even voiced controversial opinions, which right-wing politician Nigel Farage insists is why he got debanked last year.