Friday, Sept 1, 2023
BTC and the jobs market, the US budget deficit, revised Bitcoin mining energy consumption and more
“I love deadlines. I love the whooshing noise they make as they go by.” – Douglas Adams ||
Hello everyone, happy Friday, and welcome to September! I don’t know about you, but this whole week has had a September vibe – more hectic, more intense – which makes me a bit worried about what next week could bring. I have a feeling the rest of the year is going to be quite something.
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Programming note: This newsletter will not publish on Monday, Sept 4, for the Labor Day holiday. Back in your inboxes on Tuesday!
IN THIS NEWSLETTER
The BTC dip
The significance of today’s jobs report
What the budget deficit means for crypto investors
Revised Bitcoin mining energy consumption estimates
WHAT I’M WATCHING
What BTC has to do with the jobs report and the budget deficit
Well, that was a brief glimmer of excitement, emphasis on “brief”. BTC yesterday dropped back to where it was before the Grayscale ruling, yet again finding support at around $26,000 on low volume.
(chart via TradingView)
Why it matters:
Yesterday, the SEC chose to delay any decision on the roster of BTC spot ETF proposals it has in front of it, with the next set of deadlines now in October. This added to background market weakness, even though approval had not been priced in – the BTC price was already declining before the news came out, however.
It could be that investors know that September is usually a down month for BTC – it has been in the red for the past six Septembers, and the lore could become self-fulfilling as fund managers stay away waiting for October to roll around. Even in 2021, during the final upward leg of the last bull cycle, BTC lost 7% in September only to gain 40% the following month.
(table via BitcoinMonthlyReturn.com)
Times are different now, however. In September 2021, bond yields were around 1.1%, the S&P 500 was up a whopping 40% year-to-date, risk sentiment was high and BTC had already gained over 60% since early January. Even though the October listing of BTC futures ETFs was looking increasingly likely, a “take a breath” correction was in order.
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