Institutional crypto: from a trickle to a stream

plus, what to keep an eye on this week, and ouch those markets

“Tomorrow belongs to those who can hear it coming.” – David Bowie ||

Hello everyone! I hope you’re all hanging in there and taking care of yourselves.

This week I hope to slip in more blockchain-focused updates, as when markets get particularly volatile, it’s more productive to divert attention for a bit. Otherwise, trying to monitor the drops and the bounces becomes all-consuming with no knowledge gain, and – as always – there is plenty else to discuss.

That said, what’s happening in markets is SO interesting, especially when it comes to conflicting narratives, so I know I won’t be able to resist writing about that aspect. And it is all tied into the bigger picture pendulum shift I’ve been talking about.

The US put their clocks forward on Sunday, here in Europe we haven’t yet, so I would flag that publication might be later than usual but I figure that’s pointless given how late I was most days last week – it turns out that epoch-defining shifts are not easy to wrestle into a manageable framework. I hope to be able to get this newsletter out early morning US time, early afternoon Europe time, but then again, that’s always the intention even though I’m not always successful there, cough.

Below, I look at what’s ahead this week. I list just some of the big-name institutional crypto announcements from the past few days. And, I can’t help myself, I have to talk a bit about what happened in markets yesterday. Ouch.

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• Coming up: what to keep an eye on this week

• Institutional crypto services: from a trickle to a stream

• Market wounds

If you’re not a premium subscriber, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You get ~daily commentary on markets, tokenization, regulation and other signs that crypto IS impacting the macro landscape. As well as audio, relevant links and music recommendations ‘cos why not.

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

Coming up: what to keep an eye on this week

(a new section in which I’ll aim to give you a heads-up on possible market-moving events, as well as those that could shape the geopolitical and crypto stage)

Yesterday, China’s retaliatory tariffs against US farm goods kicked in.

Today is the start of meetings in Riyadh between delegations from the US (including US Secretary of State Marco Rubio as well as US national security adviser Mike Waltz) and Ukraine to discuss possible concessions and terms of a ceasefire with a view to ending the war. Crossing fingers for signs of progress. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy was in Saudi Arabia yesterday, but will not be joining the talks.

Also today, President Trump meets with US business and Wall Street CEOs to address concerns about market reactions to his economic platform. We might get some clarity as to what Trump means by an “adjustment period”.

The House of Representatives is expected to vote on a resolution to overturn an IRS rule that defines software developers as brokers – this passed in the Senate last week.

The House is also expected to hold a hearing on the GENIUS stablecoin bill.

And, across the ocean, the Economic and Financial Affairs Council of the European Commission meets to present a package aimed at reducing administrative burdens for businesses – no news is expected, but it hints at some momentum. Tomorrow, ministers will meet to discuss the “competitive compass” presented in January.

Earlier this morning, we saw Japan revise its Q4 GDP lower to 2.2% annualized, from the initially reported 2.8%. Given the acceleration from Q3’s 1.2%, this is not expected to change the outlook for an interest rate hike, which insiders believe could come as soon as June. The country’s PPI, a wholesale inflation gauge, is due tomorrow, and is expected to come in at around 4%, signalling building price pressures. Meanwhile, yesterday the yield on Japan’s 10-year bond reached the highest level since 2007.

(yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond, chart via TradingView)

Later today, we get the US JOLTS data, which will offer some insight into the US labour market via the number of job listings and separations (resignations or firings).

Wednesday is the big economic event of the week: US CPI for February. Expectations are for yet another read showing slow progress, with a month-on-month increase in the core (ex-food and energy) of 0.3%. This would be slower than January’s 0.4%, but still enough to keep the year-on-year figure at 3.2%. There is still no reassuring sign that inflation is decisively headed towards the Fed’s target 2.0%.

(chart via Bloomberg)

Also on Wednesday, the 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports into the US kicks in, which will rattle supply chains, especially those of car manufacturers still gasping for breath after last week negotiating a short-term tariff reprieve on auto parts.

And we get remarks from ECB Chief Christine Lagarde. Hopefully she’ll clear up the confusion she sowed last week regarding the launch of the digital euro – I should have space to write about this tomorrow (no, it’s not launching in October).

Thursday delivers the US Producer Price Index for February, with the core index expected to hold its month-on-month growth rate at 0.3%, which should keep the annualized rate well above 3.0%. Not great, but not surprising.

Also on Thursday we get the latest inflation data from Argentina, which deserves applause for getting the expected year-on-year increase down to just under 85%, from as much as 290% a year ago.

(chart via Bloomberg)

On Friday, we get the latest University of Michigan consumer survey, which – unsurprisingly – is expected to show a further decline in consumer sentiment. In the last report, the jump in inflation expectations was startling, but it could be anomalous to this survey. Yesterday, the New York Fed consumer survey showed only a slight uptick in inflation expectations for one year out.

(chart via Bloomberg)

And finally, in what I sincerely hope does not end up setting the mood for the week, Saturday is the Ides of March, a day imbued with foreboding since early Roman times – to honour the supreme deity Jupiter and mark the beginning of a new calendar year, the sacrifice of sheep was generally followed by heavy drinking. The occasion’s symbolism as a turning point was further entrenched with the assassination of Julius Caesar on March 15th, 44BC – it was Shakespeare’s dramatization of the event and description of a seer’s warning that embedded the phrase “Beware the Ides of March” in our cultural psyche.

Institutional crypto services: from a trickle to a stream

The thunder of legacy financial and market institutions responding to client demand for crypto assets and services is gathering momentum.