Jobs, inflation and oil

things are looking rough

“The greatest lesson in life is to know that even fools are right sometimes.” – Winston S. Churchill ||

Hello everyone! How can it be Monday already…

I hope you’re all doing ok. January can be hard, which makes it one of the most important months for self-care, kindness and gratitude. Temperatures have dropped where I am, and there’s construction going on right outside my window – but we have blue skies which are just gorgeous.

Below, I offer my take on the US jobs data and on what is pushing up bond yields – it’s not just lower expectations of rate cuts.

(No audio today, voice gone again.)

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• US jobs: confirmation of a trend

• What’s ahead on inflation?

• The oil price isn’t helping

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WHAT I’M WATCHING:

US jobs: confirmation of a trend

I confess even I was surprised. As I hinted last week, I had expected a positive US jobs report, but not that positive. I also expected many of the gloomers to pounce on details showing softening as evidence things are terrible, but no, they were quiet.