Macro: A tenuous tightrope

plus, BRICS expansion

"How often I found where I should be going only by setting out for somewhere else." – R. Buckminster Fuller ||

Hello everyone! I hope you’re all doing well! And do please avoid this rotten cold that’s going around because it’s a hard one to shake. 🤒

I don’t usually do two macro commentaries back-to-back (there’s so much going on within crypto to talk about!), but things are getting, shall we say, “crisp”.

I also squint at a significant change to the BRICS trade alliance.

(Again, no audio today, sorry! I’m looking forward to cleaning the dust off my poor neglected microphone.)

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• A tenuous tightrope

• BRICS expansion

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WHAT I’M WATCHING:

A tenuous tightrope

An ominous formation is emerging in markets – I’m not talking technical here, rather I’m referring to the uncomfortable trilogy of climbing US bond yields, the US dollar and oil prices. All this is happening against a backdrop of accelerating inflation and central bankers insisting more rate cuts are ahead.

None of this is adding up to anything good, and the question is, what gives way first? My bet is on a shift in central bank messaging, which markets will not like.

But let’s step back a moment, and look at what happened yesterday.