Macro impact: In the room

where the REAL macro shifts are happening this week

“Experience teaches only the teachable.” – Aldous Huxley ||

Hi everyone! I hope you’re all doing well.

In case you missed it yesterday, here’s the recording of the Macro Monday session I guest-hosted for Scott Melker – it was a fun chat.

Today, I look at the potential consequences of today’s talks between the US and Russia, and the European talks yesterday. These matter a lot for markets.

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• Macro impact: In the room

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WHAT I’M WATCHING:

Macro impact: In the room

The big macro shifts afoot this week are not in the Bessent/Trump determination to bring down US long-term yields, although that is significant (I’ll be talking more about this in future posts).

No, this week they’re occurring in elegant meeting rooms around choreographed tables.

Saudi Arabia

One such shift was this morning in Riyadh, where US and Russian representatives had their first official face-to-face meeting about ending the war in Europe.

(image via @humeyra_pamuk)

As I type, there have been no official announcements boasting of achievements, which is refreshing. Rather, the meeting has been downplayed as a “first step”, with comments stressing the “long road ahead” and the need to “manage expectations.”

But the meeting was hugely significant. This was not just a “sounding out” talk between diplomats. Leading the US delegation was Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Leading the Russian delegation was Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.