Macro, tariff realignment and more

the week ahead should be short but intense

“The enemy of the conventional wisdom is not ideas but the march of events.” – J. K. Galbraith ||

Hello everyone! I hope you’re all doing well, and are ready for another rollercoaster week.

Today’s send is super short because I have a packed day ahead and am running on virtually no sleep because our four-year-old sheepdog has developed night anxiety – suggestions welcome! I won’t lie, I am looking forward to a few days off!

I was working on a longer piece on how Trump’s strategy has completely deviated from Miran’s plan, and what that could mean for what’s ahead – but I’m going to have to bump that to tomorrow.

At 9amET I’m joining the Macro Monday team on Scott Melker’s Wolf of All Streets show – you can watch that here.

And later today, Bits & Bips will be doing a livestream! James Seyffart, Ram Ahluwalia, Joe McCann and myself will be talking about the tariff debate, markets and more. You can watch that here.

Production note: it’s Easter where I live this week, and so I’ll be taking a much needed break from Thursday to Monday inclusive.

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• Coming up: rates, Powell and more

• Macro-Crypto Bits: slowing inflation, tariff confusion, geopolitical realignment

If you’re not a premium subscriber, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You get ~daily commentary on markets, tokenization, regulation and other signs that crypto IS impacting the macro landscape. As well as relevant links and music recommendations ‘cos why not.

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

Coming up: rates, Powell and more

Throughout the week, we’ll be getting earnings reports which should give some inkling as to CEO expectations of what’s ahead.

March retail sales out on Wednesday are expected to jump 1.4% month-on-month as consumers brought forward purchases to get ahead of the tariffs. This would be the largest monthly increase since early 2023.

However, March industrial production data is expected to show a 0.2% decline month-on-month.