“Life starts all over again when it gets crisp in the fall.” – F. Scott Fitzgerald, The Great Gatsby
Hello everyone, and happy Friday! I hope you’ve weathered the week in one piece… What an exhausting week. 🍂
Production note: It’s a public holiday where I am on Monday, so this newsletter will skip publication. Back on Tuesday!
IN THIS NEWSLETTER
Markets: a jug of ice water
Paraguay’s banking crisis
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Adjusted stablecoin volume (removing non-economic activity) grew across all seven leading networks in the 9m to Sept 30 2026. While Tron still dominates with around 67%, its adjusted stablecoin volume grew 44% vs the 56% seen elsewhere.
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WHAT I’M WATCHING
Markets: a jug of ice water
Whoa.
I was thinking yesterday morning “I bet Trump’s pissed off that the stock market is going up after the Democrat sweep”, and lo, it stopped doing so.
I’ve been writing for ages that I expect a stock market reset, and I’ve been wrong on the timing – I’ve also come to accept that there is a lot more money fuelling more optimistic AI conviction than I credited, and so I’m not confident that this is “the” reset we’ve been waiting for. There are signs it might be, and I’ll touch on some of those below…
But there are also several ways in which this rout sets the stage for its reversal. And we know that a stock market wipe-out at this stage would be too expensive an economic price to pay, so we’ll see newly elected politicians do what they can to reassure spooked investors that investment will continue, just with guardrails.
And if things get really ugly, there will be a floor, and there will be some sort of stimulus.
In sum, yikes, but I’m not as fearful of as painful a stock market reset as I once was. And the crypto market is throwing off some interesting signals.
