Monday, Dec 4, 2023

Bitcoin and water, signs of strong interest, watch the oil price...

“Don't judge each day by the harvest you reap but by the seeds that you plant.” – Robert Louis Stevenson  ||

Hi all! Welcome to what already looks like a pretty active week… I know, this email is way too long today, I’ll make it up with shorter ones later this week. There’s just so much going on!

You’re reading the daily premium Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, where I look at the growing overlap between the crypto and macro landscapes. There’s also usually some market commentary, but NOTHING I say is investment advice. For full disclosure, I have held the same long positions in BTC and ETH for years, and have no intention to either buy more or sell in the near future.

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IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• Bitcoin at $42k?

• Bitcoin, water and biased falsehoods

• More oil sanctions ahead?

• Cybertrucks: should we be scared?

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

Bitcoin at $42k?

That was quite the chart to wake up to:

(chart via TradingView)

It looks like Asian investors were busy today, pushing BTC above $41k. The push continued when Europe clocked on, with BTC soaring past $42k, but the price has since settled back to around $41,500.  

Derivatives markets are suggesting that there’s further to run, though. BTC futures open interest is climbing fast…

(chart via coinglass)

…much of it driven by the CME, the preferred platform for US-based institutions, which late last week shot into first place in terms of OI ranking.

(chart via coinglass)

The positions on the CME look to be largely bullish, going by the climbing basis (difference between the future price and the spot price).