Monday, Jan 8, 2024

the weird BTC price message, deceptive jobs market data, crypto VC investment

“We must welcome the future, remembering that soon it will be the past; and we must respect the past, remembering that it was once all that was humanly possible.” – George Santayana ||

Hello everyone! I hope you all got some rest this weekend… January has gotten off to a particularly intense start. Unfortunately, I spent a big chunk of the weekend in the ER – husband had a bad fall while walking one of the dogs. All will be well, but today’s newsletter is later than usual, apologies.

You’re reading the daily premium Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, where I look at the growing overlap between the crypto and macro landscapes. There’s also usually some market commentary, but NOTHING I say is investment advice. For full disclosure, I have held the same long positions in BTC and ETH for years, and have no intention to either buy more or sell in the near future.

If you’re not a subscriber, I do hope you’ll consider becoming one! It would help enable me to continue to share what I learn as I work on figuring out where we’re going.

If you find this newsletter useful, would you mind hitting the ❤ button at the bottom? I’m told it boosts the distribution algorithm.

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• BTC’s big week? Maybe not

• The deceptive US employment data

• VC funding: What I’m keeping an eye on

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

BTC’s big week? Maybe not

General consensus, fueled by the rumour mill, seems to be that the SEC will authorize the listing of the first US bitcoin spot ETF as soon as today. You can bet that most of Crypto Twitter will be wearing out the “refresh” button on their keyboards once the US market wakes up, and that pretty much all market observers, whether “in” crypto or not, will be staring at the BTC price chart.

Speaking of which, the weekend’s climb in the BTC price is sending a strange message.

(chart via TradingView)

On the surface, the chart looks like good news: BTC’s price has recovered back to where it was before Wednesday’s correction.

But the message in that move may prove disappointing for traders excited about an SEC confirmation early this week. Given that the odds of approval are high, it’s notable that the BTC price hasn’t appreciated more.