No, Bitcoin has not failed as a safe haven
Plus: US jobs, market nerves, what’s ahead this week and more
“All centuries are dangerous; it is the business of the future to be dangerous.” – Alfred North Whitehead ||
Hi everyone! I hope you all had a good weekend.
My city Madrid was one big celebration of the visit of Pope Leo XIV (you can see some mainstream media coverage of yesterday’s mass here and here). I’ve been posting some pictures on X of the preparations, the decorations, the security, the traffic cuts, the impressive logistical deployment… but nothing in the build-up prepared me for just how deeply moving it was to share a space on Saturday with 600,000 young souls all there for the same reason: to show respect. From the uplifting cacophony of joy to the profound moments of silence, the vibe was hopeful. I didn’t attend the open-air mass (I’m not Catholic) – 1.2 million others did, which is spectacular – but I watched it live on my screen and it was beautiful.
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IN THIS NEWSLETTER
Coming up this week: inflation, politics, geopolitics
Monday mood: No, Bitcoin has not “failed” as a safe haven
Macro: job perks
Markets: nerves up
Crypto is Macro Now offers ~daily commentary and updates on the overlap between the crypto and macro landscapes. Plus links and more.
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WHAT I’M WATCHING:
Coming up this week:
Key inflation data this week in the form of US CPI and PPI – it’s unlikely to be good news.
Today, China’s leader Xi Jinping is visiting North Korea for the first time since 2019. Short-term there’ll be no change, but keep an eye on this relationship for deep medium- to long-term impact as North Korea gradually re-joins the global economy. I’m sure it’s sheer coincidence (??) that the Wall Street Journal yesterday ran an article with the headline: “The World’s Most Surprising Economic Success Story Is…North Korea.”
Also, today we get the latest report on consumer inflation expectations from the New York Fed, which is unlikely to bring good news.
Tuesday sees primaries in Maine, Nevada, North Dakota, and South Carolina.
On Wednesday, we get the US CPI report for May, not expected to cheer anyone up. The consensus forecast for the headline index growth is of 4.2% year-on-year, which would be the highest since April 2023. The core index ex-energy and food prices is expected to increase by 2.9%, the highest since September of last year.
(chart via Bloomberg)
Thursday brings the US Producer Price Index (PPI) wholesale inflation gauge for May, with the headline index year-on-year growth expected to accelerate from 6.0% to 6.8%. The core index is forecast to increase by 4.4%, the same as in April.
Also on Thursday, the European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by a quarter of a point, joining smaller economies such as Norway, Australia and South Africa in what could soon become a widespread hiking cycle.
And the 2026 World Cup kicks off (ha!) in Mexico with the host country facing South Africa. ⚽
On Friday, we get the preliminary consumer sentiment report for June from the University of Michigan. Although it uses a very different methodology than the New York Fed survey (which we get today), it also is unlikely to cheer anyone up.
And stock market volatility could get a further boost as SpaceX goes public in the largest IPO in history – where will the raise’s expected ~$80 billion come from?
Monday mood: No, Bitcoin has not “failed” as a safe haven
(what’s on my mind as we head into the week)
