Off to a bad start, but here’s the plan anyway

The Miran paper, markets, tariffs, crypto and more

“Think left and think right and think low and think high. Oh, the thinks you can think up if only you try!” – Dr. Seuss ||

Hello everyone, I hope you’re all doing well! Short weeks are always welcome, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say especially this one…

Last week I was invited on to the Tokenized podcast to chat to Simon Taylor and Fernando Martinez of Nonco – the episode dropped yesterday, you can listen to that here (Spotify link).

Yesterday, I joined the Macro Monday team on Scott Melker’s Wolf of All Streets show, always a fun debate! You can see that here.

And last night we did our first Monday livestream for Bits & Bips! You can see the playback of the agreements and disagreements and sound issues between James Seyffart, Ram Ahluwalia, Joe McCann and myself here. (Apologies for pasting the wrong link to the livestream yesterday!)

Production note: it’s Easter where I live this week, and so I’ll be taking a much needed break from Thursday to Monday inclusive.

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• The Miran paper: off to a bad start, but here’s the plan anyway

• Macro-Crypto Bits: Markets, Tariffs and Crypto

If you’re not a premium subscriber, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You get ~daily commentary on markets, tokenization, regulation and other signs that crypto IS impacting the macro landscape. As well as relevant links and music recommendations ‘cos why not.

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

The Miran paper: off to a bad start, but here’s the plan anyway

By now, you’ve probably heard “the Miran paper” mentioned by people trying to make sense of Donald Trump’s tariff strategy. The reference is to a paper titled “A User’s Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System” published last November by Stephen Miran, then Senior Strategist at Hudson Bay Capital. In it, Miran presents the outline of a grand strategy to redress trade imbalances, reduce the budget deficit and redraw the security alliance, all with the goal of rebalancing US economic activity.

It’s a good paper. Rather than just talk about tariffs, it examines their potential consequences not just on trade volumes and relationships, but also on financial markets. The strategy sounds like threading a needle while riding a motorcycle through a snowstorm, but at least it offers some original thinking.

What it does not do is describe Trump’s strategy. Rather, Trump seems to have heard Miran’s position, and that of Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent (similar but with a different format), and said “yeah ok, I got it” but then added a barrelful of fireworks and some formulas that make little sense, most likely at the urging of tariff hawk and trade adviser Peter Navarro.

We know now how that’s working out, going by the market reaction, the walkbacks, the exceptions and the replacing of Navarro with Bessent on the front negotiating line.

So, it’s worth revisiting Miran’s paper to see what he suggested and how different it is to Trump’s original plan (if it can be called that), with a view to figuring out if there is any way to salvage the situation.

Below, I summarize what he’s trying to achieve, why, and how – as well as how it could all go wrong, and what they would do if it did. Oh, and crypto gets a mention!

The premise