Politics, moral foundations and crypto duality
Plus: what’s ahead this week, nervous markets, and more
“It is a paradoxical but profoundly true and important principle of life that the most likely way to reach a goal is to be aiming not at that goal itself but at some more ambitious goal beyond it.” – AJ Toynbee ||
Hello everyone! I hope you all had a great weekend. With the confluence of San Isidro celebrations here in Madrid and an exuberant spring, our weekend was an uplifting combination of quirky and traditional, with some regional dance, a vintage car parade, a ceramics fair, special pastries and fragrant rose gardens. 💃 Oh, and of course Eurovision 🎶 – congratulations, Bulgaria! I confess I did not see that coming.
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IN THIS NEWSLETTER
Coming up this week: PMI, primaries, Nvidia, G7
Monday mood: Politics, moral foundations and crypto duality
Markets: getting nervous
Crypto is Macro Now offers ~daily commentary and updates on the overlap between the crypto and macro landscapes. Plus links and more.
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WHAT I’M WATCHING:
Coming up this week: PMI, primaries, Nvidia, G7
The coming days will mercifully be relatively light on macro data, which will give us more mental bandwidth to stress about the global bond market crisis and the oil price.
Today, the G7 finance chiefs start a two-day meeting in Paris at which they will no doubt discuss the building global debt crisis. A composite of their countries’ 10-year yields is at its highest in almost 20 years. Watch for 1) to what extent they acknowledge the signal, and 2) what measures they suggest, if any, to bring yields down.
(chart via Apollo Academy)
On Tuesday, primary elections are held in the US states of Alabama, Georgia, Idaho, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Kentucky. Keep an eye on Georgia, a key swing state that chooses GOP candidates for both the Senate and the governor’s office (choices that could affect the outcome of the midterms); and on Kentucky, where Trump is trying to unseat incumbent representative Thomas Massie, an independent conservative, in a battle that could reveal just how much control the President has over the Republican Party.
On Wednesday, we get minutes from the recent FOMC rate-setting meeting, covering Jerome Powell’s last session as Chair of the Federal Reserve. These could shed light on how many members agreed to some extent with the three dissents in favour of removing dovish language from the official statement.
Also on Wednesday, Nvidia reports quarterly earnings in what has become the equivalent of a macroeconomic event, given the company’s weight in US stock index performance.
On Thursday, we get a snapshot of business activity around the world via the S&P Global “flash” (preliminary) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports – these are, on the whole, expected to show consistent expansion given stockbuilding, but with some deceleration.
(chart via Bloomberg)
Friday brings the final April consumer sentiment report from the University of Michigan – the preliminary report issued a couple of weeks ago showed record lows on several of the sentiment measures.
(chart via Bloomberg)
Monday mood: Politics, moral foundations and crypto duality
(what’s on my mind as we head into the week)








