Signals from the US Treasury: good for crypto

… it’s all about the 10-year yield

“In all affairs it's a healthy thing now and then to hang a question mark on the things you have long taken for granted.” – Bertrand Russell ||

Hello everyone, I hope you’re doing well! Blue skies and crisp February air where I am – I hope your Thursday gives you pockets of beauty as well.

Today I dive into the Treasury’s refunding plans – not nearly as boring as it sounds, especially given what it says about the likely path for 10-year yields.

This week’s Bits + Bips episode is out! James Seyffart, Alex Kruger and myself are joined by Jeff Park of Bitwise to talk about tariffs, Trump and markets. You can watch here, or listen here (Spotify link).

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• Signals from the US Treasury: good for crypto

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WHAT I’M WATCHING:

Signals from the US Treasury: good for crypto

The 16 days since President Trump took office have been the fastest whirlwind of market-driving change many of us have ever seen. So, when a key market decision shows NO change, we notice.

Yesterday, the US Treasury released its latest Quarterly Refunding Statement (QRS). This document lays out treasury issuance plans for the next three months, specifying how much will be issued for bills, notes and bonds. Both the amount and the proportions were unchanged from previous quarters.

Below, I’ll lay out why the report matters, what market expectations were, and why it’s significant for crypto that nothing changed.

Why it matters