Stablecoin stress, geopolitics and markets

plus, repression, realignment, Bitcoin mining and more

“There is no force so powerful as an idea whose time has come.” – Everett Dirksen ||

Hi all! I hope that those of you who took yesterday off for Memorial Day had a great long weekend and managed to recharge – I have a feeling we’re going to need stamina for what’s ahead.

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• Coming up this week: geopolitics, macro and Bitcoin

• Stablecoin stress

• Macro-Crypto Bits: markets, repression, realignment and more

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WHAT I’M WATCHING:

Coming up this week: geopolitics, macro and Bitcoin

Yesterday saw the inauguration of the ASEAN summit in Malaysia, which unsurprisingly is sending off strong realignment signals – more on this below.

Today marks the beginning of the three-day Bitcoin Conference 2025, with tens of thousands of builders, investors, regulators and the crypto-curious descending on Las Vegas to hear from the likes of JD Vance, David Sacks, Bo Hines, Lyn Alden, Hester Peirce, Ross Ulbrich as well as Senators Bill Haggerty, Cynthia Lummis and Tom Emmer, and the CEOs of emblematic crypto businesses such as Tether, Strategy, Gemini, Strike, Custodia, Blockstream and a whole lot more. It should be a huge turnout, and we could see some big announcements. (I’m not there as I do not enjoy large conferences, but I hope everyone attending has a great time!)

Also today, we get the latest consumer sentiment report from the US Conference Board, which will almost certainly signal distress.

Tomorrow, the release of the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting will reinforce the Fed’s wait-and-see approach, as will economic figures out later in the week.

On Thursday, we see whether or not the initial Q1 US GDP growth estimate of -0.3% is revised.

On Friday, we get April’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the US Fed’s preferred inflation gauge (more on this tomorrow). Expectations are for a tame read of 0.1% growth month-on-month for the core index, after no growth in March, with the year-on-year increase holding steady at 2.6%.

We also get US personal consumption for the month, with growth expected to slow to 0.2% month-on-month from 0.7% in March. If that turns out to be accurate, it would signal that consumers are getting nervous and should add political and market pressure on the Fed to lower rates – which it will resist.

Friday also kicks off the 2025 IISS Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual inter-government event widely recognized as Asia’s main defence summit. It takes place in Singapore and this year features speeches from US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and French President Emmanuel Macron. Unusually, the Chinese defense minister will not be attending.

Stablecoin stress

The panic around dollar-backed stablecoins continues.

Last week, central bank think tank OMFIF reported on spreading unease among central bankers as the US stablecoin bill marches its way through Congress, quoting one as saying:

“There is a wall of shit money coming our way, and we’re doing nothing about it.”