The hijacking of the sovereign
Plus: what’s ahead this week, what is the OECD, and more
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.” – Upton Sinclair ||
Hello all! I hope you had a great weekend, and a smooth entry into June. Just think, we’re almost at the halfway mark for 2026…
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IN THIS NEWSLETTER
Coming up this week
Monday mood: The hijacking of the sovereign
Term of the day: OECD
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WHAT I’M WATCHING:
Coming up this week:
Jobs week! And some political twists.
Today, we get US manufacturing PMI, expected to show a slight increase.
And hot on the heels of her precedent-breaking visit to China, Taiwan’s opposition leader Cheng Li-wun arrives for a two-week US visit to solicit support for her platform of stability and reconciliation with the mainland. This comes immediately after the US Secretary of War urged allies at the weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue security forum in Singapore to stay quiet on the topic of Taiwan.
On Tuesday, we get the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), expected to hold steady.
In politics, Californians go to the polls to choose candidates for governor, Congress and the state legislature. California is unusual in that it operates under a top-two “jungle” model, where all candidates for all state elected positions appear together on the ballot, regardless of party. The two candidates that get the most votes go through to the November election, even if both are from the same party.
And S&P Global kicks off its annual Middle East Petroleum & Gas Conference, held in London this year rather than one of its usual regional locations for obvious reasons. The keynote by Daniel Yergin will be worth listening to, we’ll hear from some of the world’s largest energy producers and traders about the mood in boardrooms across the industry, and sector analysts will share their global outlook.
Wednesday brings the private ADP payrolls report, forecast to show a slowdown in new jobs created but to a still reasonable level.
We also get the US services PMI reports, which could show a slight slowdown while remaining in expansion.
The Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book, which brings anecdotal reports from the various regional central banks of business sentiment on the ground.
And the OECD (see below) releases its 2026 Economic Outlook.
On Thursday, we get the Challenger job cuts report, forecast to show a modest pick-up in layoffs.
We also get the final read of US non-farm productivity and unit labour costs (a gauge of wage inflation)
And then on Friday, we get the official US jobs report. Consensus estimates point to a slowdown in net new payrolls, but to a level that would make the three-month average the highest in more than a year. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 4.3%.
(chart via Bloomberg)
Monday mood: The hijacking of the sovereign
(what’s on my mind as we head into the week)
The word “sovereignty” is being thrown around more and more, and yet not much thought is given to how it has been hijacked and turned into a politically loaded term that drains it of actual meaning. On the flip side, an instance where it could be used but isn’t sheds light on shifting power dynamics at play across our screens.
Over the weekend, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gave a speech in which he talked about the need to rebuild domestic production “to restore American sovereignty”.
