The jolt that got real

What happened yesterday, and why it moved markets

“That's something that tends to happen with new technologies generally: The most interesting applications turn up on a battlefield, or in a gallery.” – William Gibson ||

Hey all! I hope you’re all hanging in there ok!

Apologies for the late send today – I had a late start, which in theory wasn’t going to delay me as I had already sketched out comments on the sharp shift in US GDP expectations and their role in market weakness. But, well, stuff happened yesterday, and I felt I had to address it.

Below, I summarize what we know about Trump’s moves regarding the trade war and the Ukraine war, and I look at the market fallout. Things change fast, so the mood may be different by tomorrow – but, this time, it feels like we’re entering a new phase, less worrying about what might happen, and more worrying about what is happening.

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• The jolt that got real

• Markets and new jitters

• The trade war

• The kinetic war

If you’re not a premium subscriber, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You get ~daily commentary on markets, tokenization, regulation and other signs that crypto IS impacting the macro landscape. As well as audio, relevant links and music recommendations ‘cos why not.

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

The jolt that got real

At times, history comes at you fast.

We’re in one of those times. In the space of 24 hours, the US President has ignited what could end up becoming the broadest trade war in history, and has unilaterally cut off aid to a sovereign nation that was invaded by a hostile power three years ago.

I totally get the idea that the current global economic structure is politically unsustainable, and only drastic measures will produce short-term change – but a trade war will cause significant pain in the short term, with unpredictable consequences.

And I’m not unsympathetic to the argument that this unwinnable war in Europe has to end – but that doesn’t make the latest move any less shocking or less sad.

Below, I look at the market moves, and sketch out what we know so far about yesterday’s paradigm shift.