The security blunder wake-up call

plus, new tariff targets that could backfire, the crypto rally, and more

“We must welcome the future, remembering that soon it will be the past; and we must respect the past, remembering that it was once all that was humanly possible.” – George Santayana ||

Hello everyone, I hope you’re all doing well!

It’s a long newsletter today: I know everyone is talking about the colossal US security blunder, but after the obvious “wtf???”, I look at what it means for the global realignment. In the same context, I also tackle Trump’s new tariff weaponization.

Plus, Macro-Crypto Bits touches on the recent crypto rally, India’s reactions, US economic activity and more.

I spent a big part of yesterday training an AI agent with my voice, to read the newsletters. Feeling flush with achievement, but also intimidated. More on this soon!

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• The security blunder wake-up call

• New tariff targets that could backfire

• Macro-Crypto Bits: US PMIs, India’s drills, the crypto rally, a Ukraine agreement and more

If you’re not a premium subscriber, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You get ~daily commentary on markets, tokenization, regulation and other signs that crypto IS impacting the macro landscape. As well as relevant links and music recommendations ‘cos why not.

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

The security blunder wake-up call

Two hot stories from yesterday’s headlines have more to do with each other than it may at first seem.

One is the colossal blunder of accidentally allowing an editor from The Atlantic into a private chat between members of the Trump Cabinet discussing war plans. Jeffrey Goldberg was sent a connection request from US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and then invited to join a chat along with VP Vance, Defence Secretary Hegseth, Chief of Staff Suzie Wiles, Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and more key defence personnel. Oh, and for some reason Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

This almost feels too slapstick to be true. But the White House is not denying it, nor is there an obvious reason to suspect the invitation and subsequent publication of sensitive content was intentional. Goldberg, to his credit, waited until after the US attack on Yemen to publish his story, and avoided sharing information that could put ongoing operations or people in jeopardy. But, whatever really happened, this doesn’t paint the Administration as the lean fighting machine it wants to be.

First, the use of a commercial app by maximum-clearance people to discuss a military operation? Surely the Department of Defence has a more secure alternative? And, why would the National Security Advisor want to connect with a journalist from the Atlantic on Signal anyway?

Also, messages set to self-destruct probably violates all sorts of record-keeping rules.

The main takeaway for what lies ahead, however, is JD Vance’s comments on Europe: “I just hate bailing Europe out again,” he vented. Pete Hegseth was even less diplomatic: “VP: I fully share your loathing of European free-loading. It’s PATHETIC.” Ouch.

This says two things: