Thursday, Apr 27, 2023

Bank strain and Fed cuts, what that means for bitcoin, crypto expands in Europe, and more...

“We are told that talent creates its own opportunities. But it sometimes seems that intense desire creates not only its own opportunities but its own talents.” – Eric Hoffer ||

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Programming note: This newsletter will not publish on Monday, May 1, for Labour Day (I’ve never understood why we celebrate working by not working, but hey, I’ll take it!).

WHAT I’M WATCHING

• Bank strain. Rates expectations are swinging wildly, with more traders speculating that we could see a pause next week in US rate hikes. More on this below.

• Bitcoin narratives. The banking strain is one; peak US rates is another. More on this below.

• Oil price. Despite the surprise production cut from OPEC+ at the start of this month, which had the explicit aim of propping up the oil price, Brent is currently trading at around $78/barrell, below its level when the cut was announced. Does this mean we can expect more production cuts? They’re not easy to implement, so it’s not a given.

• Crypto in Europe. It’s not that crypto activity in Europe has started picking up now that the MiCA regulatory framework is marching toward implementation – market participants have been preparing for demand growth for years now. It’s more that it’s continuing, and taking some interesting turns that highlight conviction in increased interest from European investors. Yesterday we saw two such announcements: