“The real danger is not that computers will begin to think like men, but that men will begin to think like computers.” – Sydney J. Harris ||
Hello everyone! You’re reading the premium daily Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, where I focus on the growing overlap between the crypto and macro ecosystem. Thanks so much for being a subscriber! Nothing I say is investment advice. Nevertheless, I hope you find it useful – if so, please consider hitting the Like ❤ button at the bottom, I’m told it boosts the distribution algorithm.
If you’re not yet a subscriber, I hope you’ll think about becoming one to support my work. It would REALLY (really, really) make my day! 😊 It’s currently only $8/month (with a free trial!), although I will be raising the price at the end of the summer.
IN TODAY’S NEWSLETTER
What recession?
ETH futures ETFs
The Worldcoin clampdown begins
Bitcoin and the ESG argument
Binance will be ok
WHAT I’M WATCHING
What recession?
A new and somewhat disturbing macro narrative seems to be playing out in the media and markets.
On the one hand, we have more high-profile economists going over to the “no recession” side of the court – yesterday, Bank of America analysts changed their forecast of a recession in the US (which anyway for was a “mild” one in 2024), citing economic activity, low unemployment and price pressures moving in the right direction. On the other hand, the US 10-year treasury yield shot up yesterday to its highest point since last November, presumably in response to the upcoming flood of issuance (yesterday, the Treasury said it plans to issue a higher-than-expected $103 billion of longer-term debt next week, up from $96 billion) and expectations that rates will remain higher for longer (and may even continue rising).
(chart via TradingView)
Why it matters:
This was enough to send US stocks down – on the surface, this doesn’t make sense if indeed the “no recession” outlook is becoming consensus. Surely earnings estimates can now be revised upward?
(chart via TradingView)
However, it feels like a belated yet refreshing acknowledgement that things are weird, a stronger economy does not bode well for interest rates, and higher rates will hurt profitability, valuations and perhaps the health of the financial system.
Meanwhile, and this is bewildering, crypto markets continue to be boring, not reacting to either the good news or the bad news that continues to pepper the screens. Historical 30-day BTC volatility is back down to early January lows, which can’t even be attributed to a summer lull – the BVOL index is at its lowest summer point ever.
(chart via TradingView)
In an excellent report published on Monday, K33 Research showed that BTC’s 5-day volatility is now lower than that of Nasdaq, the S&P 500 and gold.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Crypto is Macro Now to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.