Thursday, August 31, 2023
another big crypto ruling, shifting ETF odds, and the good and bad of centralized counterparties
“Civilization rests on the fact that we all benefit from knowledge which we do not possess.” – Friedrich Hayek ||
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IN THIS NEWSLETTER
The odds of a BTC spot ETF
The good and bad news about centralized counterparties
Another big legal win for crypto
WHAT I’M LOOKING AT
The odds of a BTC spot ETF
Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have increased their odds of a spot BTC ETF launching this year from 65% to 75% following this week’s ruling in favour of Grayscale in its case against the SEC.
Why it matters:
The big question is, how much of this is already priced in? The answer is: not very much at all. BTC has had a relatively flat summer on low volumes and low volatility, and the Grayscale news delivered an upside jolt that has since lost steam.
(chart via TradingView)
BTC 5-day implied volatility as priced by the options market also enjoyed a rally this week, but has since dropped down to new lows.
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