“Civilization rests on the fact that we all benefit from knowledge which we do not possess.” – Friedrich Hayek ||
Hi everyone, and happy Last Day of What Seemed Like a Very Long Month! I never want to wish time away (it’s too scarce as it is), but I for one am not broken-hearted to see the back of August 😝.
You’re reading the premium daily version of Crypto is Macro Now. In this newsletter, I give some depth on factors I’m keeping an eye on that highlight the growing overlap between the crypto and macro landscapes – my focus is on how crypto is affecting the global economy, and vice versa. There is often a market discussion as well, because that is an important piece, not just for the structural changes but also for investor sentiment, which impacts attention and funding. Nothing I say is investment advice!
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Programming note: This newsletter will not publish on Monday, Sept 4, for the Labor Day holiday. Back in your inboxes on Tuesday!
IN THIS NEWSLETTER
The odds of a BTC spot ETF
The good and bad news about centralized counterparties
Another big legal win for crypto
WHAT I’M LOOKING AT
The odds of a BTC spot ETF
Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart have increased their odds of a spot BTC ETF launching this year from 65% to 75% following this week’s ruling in favour of Grayscale in its case against the SEC.
Why it matters:
The big question is, how much of this is already priced in? The answer is: not very much at all. BTC has had a relatively flat summer on low volumes and low volatility, and the Grayscale news delivered an upside jolt that has since lost steam.
(chart via TradingView)
BTC 5-day implied volatility as priced by the options market also enjoyed a rally this week, but has since dropped down to new lows.
