Thursday, Feb 16, 2023

Current rally drivers, signs of a sentiment shift, what could be next...

“Change is inevitable. Change is constant.” – Benjamin Disraeli ||

Hello all! So things are getting even more interesting in crypto markets… Below I talk about the main drivers of this rally, what its characteristics say about current sentiment, hints at what could be next, and more. Thanks for being here! You’re reading the premium daily Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, where I focus on the growing overlap between the crypto and macro ecosystems. Nothing I say is investment advice! Nevertheless, if you find this useful, do please consider liking, and sharing with friends and colleagues.

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MARKETS

BTC is known to have a volatile past, but moves of more than 10% in the BTC price in any given 24 hours are not exactly common, especially when yields are going up. So, something new is going on. What?

First, some stage setting. Around 11:00UTC yesterday morning, BTC enjoyed a nice leg up, consolidated for a bit, and then jumped even more at around 18:00UTC, again just before 0:00UTC and at time of writing is holding on to a gain of more than 11% over the past 24 hours.

For most of that period, the benchmark US 10-year yield was also rising, although it has fallen back over the past few hours while BTC has held steady.

(chart via TradingView)

Other markets were also up yesterday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.3% and Nasdaq up almost 1%. But the moves in crypto will be triggering a lot of headlines today, so let’s dive in: