“Liberty means responsibility. That is why most men dread it.” ― George Bernard Shaw ||
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Programming note: This newsletter will be taking a couple of days off, tomorrow and on Saturday – back in your inboxes on Monday, and I hope you all have a great weekend!
WHAT I’M WATCHING
Rash promises. Just when you thought the US election cycle couldn’t get crazier. US Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. spoke earlier this week about a plan to back the US dollar with “real finite assets” such as gold, silver, platinum and bitcoin. Of course, crypto-focused media headlines are using words like “vows to” and “promises to”, overlooking the fact that, even in the unlikely event that RFK wins, he would not have the power or authority to do this. This particular type of political publicity is disappointing as it adds to the already crisp political polarization around crypto assets, and is also probably triggering either raised eyebrows or outright guffaws in the power halls of geopolitical rivals.
Commodity inflation. Wheat prices have surged over the past few days as Russia not only stepped up its attacks on Ukraine ports, but also said that all ships sailing to Ukrainian ports could be considered as carrying military cargo, and any country whose flag is on any of those ships would be considered to be on Ukraine’s side. The price seems to be correcting now, but this is an aggressive move that threatens to escalate the conflict, and serves as an unwelcome reminder that the evolution of many commodity prices is to some extent still vulnerable to the war’s evolution.
(chart via TradingView)
Political pressure. Yesterday, SEC Chair Gary Gensler faced harsh questioning at a Senate hearing as to why he hadn’t done a better job policing the crypto industry. He was also the subject an official letter not only criticizing the SEC’s crypto approach, but also accusing Gensler of intentionally timing SEC actions to overshadow and undermine legislation efforts. It feels like the heat is building. More on this below.
Institutional services. In France, a large legacy bank gets a license to offer a wide range of digital asset services. In the US, a well-known financial name pulls back from offering crypto custody. The contrast is telling. More on this below.
Bitcoin dominance. Its recent dip does not mean we are entering a new phase of the crypto market cycle. More on this below.
GOING DEEPER
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