Thursday, March 21, 2024

BTC floors, Fed dots

“Culture eats strategy for breakfast.” – Peter Drucker ||

Hello everyone! I was right, conferences are totally exhausting, and I got no writing done on the train up to Scotland yesterday because I could barely think. The DAS event in London was excellent, well put together, buzzy, informative, and I loved being able to catch up with old friends and make new ones. Now to recover.

Today’s email will be short because I’d forgotten how beautiful Edinburgh is and I really want to head out for a long walk 😊.

Programming note: I’m on the road tomorrow, heading back to Madrid via London – I might be able to get something written on the train, but the wifi didn’t work on the way up, so I may just gaze out of the window at green fields instead. Back on Monday, but with spotty publishing next week as well.

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• Floors and roads: the drivers of BTC inflows

• Joining the dots: rates chaos ahead?

If you’re not a subscriber to the premium daily, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You’ll get ~daily insight into the growing overlap between the crypto and macro landscapes, as well as some useful links, and (usually!) access to an audio read of the content. And there’s a free trial!

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

(skipping the usual price table this week due to irregular publishing)

Floors and roads: the drivers of BTC inflows

It sure was nice this morning waking up to the price recovery. As I type, BTC is back up to around $67,500, which serves as a welcome reminder that with so many tailwinds and fewer headwinds (than a year ago, anyway), there is strong support at lower levels.

(chart via TradingView)

Many people I spoke to at the DAS conference are convinced the support is mainly from the ETF flows. Perhaps I’m being pedantic, but I disagree: it feels like a superficial narrative.

Yes, the launch of BTC spot ETFs were a very big deal in establishing an important onramp and opening up access for a new market. But saying that they are the reason for the price going up is like saying that roads are the reason there’s a lot of traffic. Better roads lead to more cars out and about, sure, and some people just like to go for a drive – but generally, the traffic is there because people want to go somewhere.

The ETFs make it easier for people to add BTC exposure to their portfolios. But the key question is why they would want to.