Thursday, May 18, 2023

What happens to markets when the debt ceiling is raised? Also, tether is buying bitcoin, Ledger raises important custody questions, and China is struggling...

“We invent our technologies and then we turn around and use our technologies to reinvent ourselves as individuals, communities and cultures.” – Paul Saffo   ||

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WHAT I’M WATCHING

• Tether plans to buy bitcoin. This is good news, but the market hasn’t reacted much. More on this below.

• Debt ceiling. Signs are starting to appear that the two sides are getting closer to an agreement. This would not necessarily be good news for markets, though. More on this below.

• Ledger highlights custody issues. The kerfuffle around Ledger’s new custody solution has led many to question just how safe even offline hardware devices are. It’s a thorny issue that highlights just how hard crypto custody is. It also reminds us that, unlike with traditional assets, crypto custody does very much depend on the underlying technology – it’s not just ledger-based storage, crypto custody IS a technology solution unto itself.

• China wobbles. Disappointing economic data this week from what was supposed to be the global economy’s “saviour” this year in terms of growth puts into question the global outlook. More on this below.

MARKETS

The downside of good news

Much (oh so much) has been written about how disastrous it would be for markets (and for US standing and for the global economy etc. etc.) if the US ends up defaulting on its debt payments. We can agree that it would be very bad news all around, but perhaps would be good for bitcoin and gold as fiat economy alternatives.