Thursday, Nov 9, 2023

BTC's moves are different now, crypto assets and stock exchanges, centralized internet, debt stability

“Human beings, who are almost unique in having the ability to learn from the experience of others, are also remarkable for their apparent disinclination to do so.” – Douglas Adams  ||

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IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• More on how this latest BTC move is different

• Crypto assets and stock exchanges

• What it would take to stabilize the US government debt

• The danger of internet provider centralization

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

More on how this latest BTC move is different

We know that the BTC price has been up and down but largely up for most of this year so far. And many (including myself) have argued that the pattern we’re in now is different. I’m going to poke a hole in that observation, and then build it back up again.

First, here’s a chart of the BTC performance since January 1.

(chart via TradingView)

The circled areas look pretty similar, right?

Yet look at the dates. The last time BTC had this sort of climb – a sharp jump followed by a more gentle uptrend – was during the March US banking crisis. We’re not in a banking crisis now (I mean, there are some issues, but nothing like March, and nor does a repeat look likely at this stage). This means that it’s not a knee-jerk assumption that the Fed will have to cut rates to bail out the financial system that is driving these moves. Something else is going on.

So, while the wave may look familiar, the water underneath is different. (Ok, so I’m not great at metaphors.)

That’s a big macro difference. Now, on to a significant micro (crypto-specific) difference.