Trade confusion deepens, complacency holds

plus: remembrance, political shifts, jobs, services, hedging and more

"Risk means more things can happen than will happen." – Elroy Dimson ||

Hi everyone! I hope you all had a great weekend. My short break got off to a good start but then, with unfortunate timing, I came down with the flu😭😭- still working through that, so apologies if today’s email seems a bit fuzzy. I’m going to send early and slink back to bed, hopefully back with more sparkle tomorrow.

Here's the edited version of last week’s Bits & Bips livestream, in which James Seyffart, Ram Ahluwalia and I had a lot of fun chatting to Jit’s Thomas Uhm – one of my favourites of our recent episodes. (There’s another livestream tonight – I won’t be able to join, though, but you should tune in! The team will be joined by Rob Hadick, General Partner at Dragonfly, so it should be good.)

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IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• Remembrance

• Coming up: BRICS, FOMC thoughts, jobs

• Trade confusion deepens

• Political shifts and BTC

• Macro-Crypto Bits: jobs, services, complacency risk, hedging and more

If you’re not a premium subscriber, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You get ~daily commentary on markets, tokenization, regulation and other signs that crypto IS impacting the macro landscape. As well as relevant links and music recommendations ‘cos why not.

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(photo by Jaanus Jagomägi on Unsplash)

😞Tragedy deserves remembrance, out of respect for the dead as well as a deep gratitude for life. Twenty years ago today, four bombs went off on London transport, blowing up three underground trains and one double-decker bus, killing 52 and maiming and wounding over 700 more. Horrific numbers, and London changed that day.

Yet it still remained London, a testament to legacy and community and an instinctive understanding of what must endure. 💔 💔

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WHAT I’M WATCHING:

Coming up: what to keep an eye on this week

The BRICS annual summit kicked off in Brazil yesterday, with notable absences. The most obvious is that of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, who unusually has chosen to skip this year’s meeting. Another is Russian leader Vladimir Putin, less of a surprise given the outstanding arrest warrant from the International Court of Justice (to which Brazil is a signatory). Also not in attendance are Egypt’s Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi and Iran’s Masoud Pezeshkian.

Another key absence seems to be the lack of a prime spot on the agenda to discuss a common currency, or at least a common financial framework for cross-border trade. All present seem to be keeping quiet on that. The focus this year has pivoted to geopolitics, with a joint statement condemning the attacks on fellow member Iran, calling for an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, expressing alarm at the increase in military spending and objecting to the trade distortions from Trump’s tariff policy.

On Wednesday, we get the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting, which will most likely highlight the consensus around caution, with Fed Governors Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman the exceptions suggesting that rate cuts could come soon. Given Trump’s promise to replace Fed Chair Powell with someone eager to cut rates, could they be auditioning for the job?

Bloomberg shared this interesting chart last week on where FOMC members stand according to their public statements – it is unusual how isolated over on the dovish left Waller is. And how little we hear from Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker, who’s all the way over there on the hawkish right.

(chart via Bloomberg)

I digress, back to the calendar:

On Thursday, we get the weekly (and noisy) unemployment claims data, expected to show continuing upward pressure on continuing claims.

That’s pretty much it for this week. The US House of Representatives is in recess this week, but is expected to vote on the GENIUS Act and the market structure CLARITY Act next week.

See also: BRICS: Why new networks matter for markets

Trade confusion deepens

Maybe it’s my flu-addled brain today, but I’m feeling more confused than ever about where the US stands on tariffs with trading partners.