Tuesday, Feb 13, 2024

BTC at $50k, split CPI narratives

“The history of the world is none other than the progress of the consciousness of freedom.” – GW Hegel ||

Hello everyone! Today’s edition is earlier and shorter than usual as I have a schedule squeeze (dashing out the door as I type), and I’m afraid I won’t have time to do the audio – sorry!

You’re reading the daily premium Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, where I look at the growing overlap between the crypto and macro landscapes. There’s also usually some market commentary, but I don’t give trading ideas, and NOTHING I say is investment advice. For full disclosure, I have held the same long positions in BTC and ETH for years, and have no intention to either buy more or sell in the near future.

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Note: I’m speaking at BlockWorks’ upcoming Digital Asset Summit conference in London on March 18-20. Normally I say no to conferences, but this is one of the very few worth travelling for. If you’re thinking of going, it’d be great to say hi, and here’s a discount code you can use: CIMN10.

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IN THIS NEWSLETTER

• BTC breaks through a nice round number

• The split narrative of rates expectations

WHAT I’M WATCHING

BTC breaks through a nice round number

Well, well, well… BTC holding at $50,000.

I mean, we knew it was coming, but it’s still nice to see.

(chart via TradingView)

We knew it was coming not because of any crystal ball or technical analysis, rather because of the obvious case for holding at least some BTC as a diversifier and a hedge, given the coming economic uncertainty, political turmoil and currency debasement around the globe.

To the awareness build-up, add a leap forward in accessibility via the BTC spot ETF listings in the US, and you get a bundle of tailwinds gradually pushing the BTC price beyond key resistance levels.

So, where from here? Obviously, I don’t know, but expectations are building around $50,500 and also $60,000, going by BTC options open interest.

(chart via coinglass)

But the leverage build-up is still relatively low, judging by the BTC futures open interest in BTC terms (to remove the price effect) – it’s climbing fast, but it’s not at frothy levels yet.