Tuesday, July 30, 2024

conflict flash points, potential market pivots, DEXs and SEC suits

“Every solution of a problem raises new unsolved problems.” – Karl Popper ||

Hi everyone! I hope you’re all doing well. Here in Madrid, we’re in my favourite stretch of the summer – the turning point between months when the sidewalks are sprinkled with people dragging suitcases as some head off on holiday and others return, when the watermelon is deep pink, and when the nights feel long and languid. Just love it.

Speaking of holidays, I’ll be taking some time off next week, probably Wednesday until the following Monday. I will actually try to take a couple of days off Twitter/X! It’ll be hard, but I’m up for the test of wills.

Also, I won’t be publishing this Thursday – we have to take our senior dog in for surgery, it’s going to be a tough day.

And today’s email is shorter than usual due to a schedule squeeze (dealing with plumbers and hot water issues) – but since yesterday’s was so long, I figure it averages out? 😊

If you find Crypto is Macro Now useful or informative, would you mind sharing it with your friends and colleagues, and maybe encouraging them to subscribe? ❤ I’d really appreciate it! 

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• Conflict flash points: Venezuela and Lebanon

• Potential market pivots

• DEXs and SEC suits

If you’re not a subscriber to the premium daily, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You’ll get unique content, interesting links and my eternal gratitude - and there’s a free trial!

IN BRIEF:

Conflict flashpoints

Venezuela appears to be on the brink of civil war, after Sunday’s election was declared a resounding victory for incumbent Nicolás Maduro, despite actual counts showing a landslide for the opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez. This is an evolving situation and I have no idea what’s happening on the ground other than a smattering of reports on X, but statues of Maduro are being toppled, angry crowds have taken to the streets, and shots are being fired from both sides. It’s tragic and scary, but also hopeful. Going back to the status quo would be even more tragic. Things are complicated, however, by China’s declaration of support for Maduro’s falsified victory.

Meanwhile, the Middle East balance is getting even more fragile after a drone strike over the weekend, blamed on Iran-backed Hezbollah, killed 12 children. US and other international officials and diplomats are scrambling to persuade Israel to not retaliate by bombing Beirut, which could escalate fast. Israel has said it does not want to start an outright war, but it’s pretty mad, and a possible invasion by Israel of southern Lebanon has been on the strategy table for some time. Yesterday, the Israeli government authorized retaliation, but it’s not yet clear what form that will take. As a precaution, many airlines are suspending flights to Lebanon, and some countries are urging their citizens in Lebanon to leave.

These events could be behind the uptrend in the gold price over the past few days, as investors turn to “safety” assets.

(chart via TradingView)

This is also likely to affect the price of BTC, as citizens of both Venezuela and Lebanon are well familiar with crypto as a payments mechanism and store of value. Those are admittedly small markets, but the highlight shone on non-speculative use cases will be noticed, especially as tensions continue to ratchet up around the globe.

(chart via TradingView)

On to markets: