Tuesday, June 18, 2024

the lid on BTC, exchanges are skeptical of tokenization, BIS survey on CBDCs

“The past is not what it was.” – G. K. Chesterton ||

Hi everyone! I hope you’re all doing well! A big welcome to new premium subscribers 😃 – I’m really grateful you’re here. For some background on who I am, and also on my business partners at Triple Crown Digital, check out our website.

If you find this newsletter useful, would you mind sharing it with your friends and colleagues? ❤

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• The lid on BTC

• Exchanges are skeptical of tokenization

• BIS survey on CBDCs

If you’re not a subscriber to the premium daily, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You’ll get ~daily insight into the growing overlap between the crypto and macro landscapes, as well as some useful links. And there’s a free trial!

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

The lid on BTC

Yesterday, I published a table showing that BTC’s lack of strong performance since the halving is typical of this stage of the four-year cycle. Earlier today, I came across a chart put together by NYDIG that reinforces this, with prettier lines and colours than my very basic effort.

(chart via NYDIG)

The “8-9” shown for BTC performance in the second and third halving do not refer to percentage increase over the next year – rather, they reflect moves in an index based at 1 roughly a year before the halving, and so imply an increase of 4-6x (300-500%) from the halving price – if, of course, this cycle repeats the pattern.