Tuesday, Mar 14, 2023

More market chaos, the BTC macro story, crypto banking and regime changes

"You never change things by fighting the existing reality. To change something, build a new model that makes the existing model obsolete." – R. Buckminster Fuller ||

Hi everyone! I hope you’re all hanging in there ok, and remembering to drink lots of water. You’re reading the premium daily Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, where I focus on the growing overlap between the crypto and macro ecosystems – I’m glad you’re here. Nothing I say is investment advice! Nevertheless, I hope you find it useful – if so, please consider liking, and sharing with friends and colleagues.

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Programming note: it’s a public holiday where I live on Monday, so this newsletter will be taking a one-day break – unless, of course, things explode over the weekend in which case I will be here. But let’s hope it doesn’t come to that! Back in your inboxes on Tuesday.

MARKETS

Ok, then

One sure-fire way to get the adrenaline going in the morning is dragging yourself out of bed, setting up to do your stretching exercises but first checking your screen because you just can’t help yourself, and then seeing charts like these:

(chart via TradingView)

That’s the MOVE index, which measures the expected volatility of the US treasury market. When I shared it with you yesterday, it didn’t look like that – since then, it’s up almost 26%, its highest one-day increase ever (yes, even more than during the COVID market panic), and is now at its highest level since 2008.

So, that sent me to the US 2-year yield, which yesterday had its largest one-day drop since the October 1987 crash. When I checked this morning, it was below 4.0%, having fallen from 5.0% just a few days ago.

(chart via TradingView)