Tuesday, Mar 7, 2023
The message in BTC stability, monetary policy isn't working, retail CBDCs are harder than central banks think, blockchain consortiums are back
"You wouldn't worry so much about what others think of you if you realized how seldom they do." – Eleanor Roosevelt ||
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MARKETS
Why isn’t it working?
Today we get Fed Chair Powell’s testimony in front of Congress, in which he could end up dropping hints as to his terminal rate expectations. We don’t have long to go, however, until the official forecasts are revealed at the March 21-22 FOMC meeting.
One question he may have to field is why, after the fastest hiking cycle since 1980, supposedly interest rate-sensitive metrics such as factory orders are showing signs of a recovery. Yesterday’s data revealed that January’s factory orders ex-transportation rose by 1.2% over the month. Including transportation, the figure dropped 1.6% over the month (less than the forecast 1.8% drop), but was still up 4.3% year-on-year. This comes on top of data last week which showed that US core durable goods orders increased in January by much more than expected (0.7% vs 0.1% forecast and -0.4% in December), and that new manufacturing orders improved after a more than 2.5-year low.
(chart via Investing.com)
There are many potential answers to this question:
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