Tuesday, Oct 1, 2024

a China crypto policy shift?, global conflict, supply chain threats

“Few new truths have ever won their way against the resistance of established ideas save by being overstated.” – Isaiah Berlin  ||

Hi everyone, and welcome to October and the last quarter of 2024!!

With the September market doldrums behind us (although they turned out to be not so bad), consider this a reminder to take care of yourself, get the necessary rest, eat healthily, because October could be hectic.

Below, I look at signs that China’s crypto policy might be about to change, what that could look like and how it would impact markets. I also fret about the conflict in the Middle East, and the port strike in the US.

IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• China’s likely crypto policy shift

• Turning up the heat

• Supply chain threats

If you’re not a premium subscriber, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! It’s the price of a couple of New York coffees a month, and you get ~daily commentary on how macro moods are influencing crypto markets, and also on how crypto is impacting the macro economy.

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

China’s likely crypto policy shift

China’s approach to crypto assets could be about to change.

At a high-level economics conference this weekend, Zhu Guangyao – former vice-minister of China’s Ministry of Finance – said that he thought China should re-think its approach to cryptocurrencies.

We’ve heard former Chinese officials and academics publicly suggest policy changes before, but this one feels different. Often, the comments come from those looking to boost their public image or perhaps feed a frustration. Zhu doesn’t check those boxes.

He is no longer at the Ministry of Finance, but he appears to still be a high-ranking Party official – the website of a Chinese think tank lists him as Counsellor of the State Council, China’s highest executive body.

So, he’s not speaking off the cuff here, and it’s unlikely that he’s radically departing from Party thinking. Rather, it’s possible that he was tasked with gently getting a message “out there”.

Why?