US growth, market drivers, geopolitics

plus, an intriguing CBDC, China and a whole lot more

“The reformer is always right about what is wrong. He is generally wrong about what is right.” – G. K. Chesterton ||

Hello everyone! I hope you had a great weekend. Spring has sprung in Madrid, gorgeous weather, trees a-bloom, and our hairy dog has gone back to sleeping in the shower.

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**NOTE: I’ll be doing a livestream chat on Wednesday with James Seyffart, Ram Ahluwalia and a surprise guest – we kick off at 4:30pm ET, and you can tune in here.**

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IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• Coming up: Liberation Day, US jobs report, Powell, stablecoins and more

• The UAE: A CBDC worth watching

• Macro-Crypto Bits: US forecasts, China, Japan, bleak markets and more

If you’re not a premium subscriber, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You get ~daily commentary on markets, tokenization, regulation and other signs that crypto IS impacting the macro landscape. As well as relevant links and music recommendations ‘cos why not.

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

Coming up: Liberation Day, US jobs report, Powell, stablecoins and more

This week, we have two significant economic events, one potentially seismic in terms of its impact on global growth, and the other a big deal for the US liquidity outlook. “Liberation Day” and Jobs Day are on Wednesday and Friday respectively – more on these below. Meanwhile, in chronological order:

Tomorrow, President Trump gets his commissioned reports on the global state of tariffs and US trade, which supposedly will inform the Administration’s strategy going forward. These are expected to include recommendations on existing trade agreements, an analysis of the causes and the national security implications of the trade deficit, a review of foreign tax practices, identification of “currency manipulators”, and more. Gulp.

Also on Tuesday, we get the latest ISM and S&P Global manufacturing activity indices, with services activity following on Thursday.

And we get the Eurozone CPI, with the core index expected to show a slight year-on-year deceleration to 2.5%. At stake are expectations for further rate cuts, with the ECB committee divided.

(chart via Bloomberg)

Wednesday is “Liberation Day”, when President Trump unleashes reciprocal tariffs. The suspense is in the scale and breadth, and for now it’s a coin toss whether the final decisions come in better or worse than expected. Plus, they probably won’t be final, which will add to the confusion. For now, the plan appears to be for tariffs applied to all countries which sounds pretty disruptive, and no, I don’t think this is “priced in”.

(**I’ll be doing a livestream chat on Wednesday to discuss the market reaction, with James Seyffart, Ram Ahluwalia and a surprise guest – we kick off at 4:30pm ET, and you can tune in here.**)

Also on Wednesday, we get ADP payrolls a private sector precursor to Friday’s official report.

And the House Financial Services Committee will consider The STABLE Act, its stablecoin bill proposal.

On Friday, to end the week with a flourish, we get the February US jobs report. Consensus forecasts point to an easing in employment growth, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. I would not be at all surprised to see the numbers come in notably worse than expected, given not just the federal hiring freeze and government layoffs, but also the pullback in hiring from business across the US.

(chart via Bloomberg)

After the jobs data release, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give remarks at an event.

The UAE: A CBDC worth watching