Vibes or fundamentals?
Plus: market jitters, bear markets, what’s ahead this week, and more
Phil: “Do you ever have déjà vu, Mrs. Lancaster?” - Mrs. Lancaster: “I don’t think so, but I could check with the kitchen.” – from Groundhog Day ||
Hello everyone! I hope you all managed to avoid looking at price charts this weekend, ‘cos ouch… And to think just over a week ago I was commenting on how weirdly quiet BTC was outside traditional market trading hours.
For those of you who follow arcane rituals, today is Groundhog Day, and Punxsutawney Phil, prognosticator of prognosticators, saw his shadow this morning. The US is in for six more weeks of winter – although Phil’s record is not great, he’s right less than 40% of the time, which is less than a coin toss. Still, he’s cute.
No stablecoin or tokenization comment today – no surprise, it’s all markets. Plus, of course, what’s coming up this week.
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IN THIS NEWSLETTER:
Coming up this week: jobs, geopolitics, crypto politics
Markets: yikes
Crypto: what bear market?
Vibes or fundamentals?
Crypto is Macro Now offers ~daily commentary and updates on the overlap between the crypto and macro landscapes. Plus links, a music recommendation (‘cos why not?), and more.
If you’re a premium subscriber, thank you!! ❤
WHAT I’M WATCHING:
Coming up this week:
It’s jobs week! Plus, there’s a lot going on in geopolitics and crypto politics.
On Monday, crypto representatives will meet with bank trade groups at the White House to negotiate the issue of stablecoin rewards.
We also get hints as to the state of US manufacturing via the ISM and S&P Global manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports, with expectations pointing to a slight increase in activity and a more notable increase in prices.
And we get the US Treasury quarterly borrowing estimates, for Q1 and Q2. Any deviation from trend could spook the bond market.
On Tuesday, we get the US JOLTS report, which will set the tone for the jobs data of the week with an indication of job openings, hires, quits and layoffs.
And the World Governments Summit kicks off in Dubai, where global leaders gather to discuss “the future of governance and leadership”. A mix of transnational organizations, tech CEOs and political leaders of not-very-significant economies, it looks even less relevant than Davos (although that surprised this year, so who knows).
On Wednesday, we get the private ADP US jobs report, expected to show a modest slowdown.
We also get US services PMI reports, forecast to show a slight cooling.
And the US Treasury releases its quarterly refunding announcement, which details upcoming auction sizes – of interest will be the split between short and long-term issuance.
On Thursday, Challenger et. al. publish their job cuts report, and we get the weekly unemployment data including continuing claims.
Plus, the central banks of the EU and the UK host their rate-setting meetings, with both expected to leave rates on hold.
On Friday, we get the much-anticipated US jobs data (a government shutdown may impact this). Consensus forecasts point to a payrolls increase of 68,000 for January, which would be the most in four months. The unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 4.4%.
(chart via Bloomberg)
Friday also brings the preliminary University of Michigan consumer survey for February.
European Central Bank Executive Board member Piero Cipollone gives a speech on the digital euro at an event in Cyprus.
And Milan hosts the opening of the Winter Olympics!! ⛷⛸🥌
And on Sunday, Japan’s lower house holds elections. According to polls reported this morning by Reuters, Prime Minister Takaichi’s party is expected to win by a landslide.
