Wednesday, April 24, 2024

ETH spot ETFs, what to watch for in tomorrow's GDP, crypto in South Africa

“It still holds true that man is most uniquely human when he turns obstacles into opportunities.” – Eric Hoffer ||

Hi all! I hope you’re doing well. And happy 24/04/24 which is just a beautifully symmetrical date (ok, maybe not exactly, and only for Europeans and others who write their numerical dates the right way around, but close enough).

I apologize, yet again I have to skip the audio recording, else this newsletter won’t get published today.

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IN THIS NEWSLETTER:

• US GDP tomorrow: the good, the bad, and the possibly really ugly

• Spot ETH ETFs: finally some movement (but not much)

• Crypto in South Africa: big steps

If you’re not a subscriber to the premium daily, I hope you’ll consider becoming one! You’ll get ~daily insight into the growing overlap between the crypto and macro landscapes, as well as some useful links, and (usually!) access to an audio read of the content. And there’s a free trial!

WHAT I’M WATCHING:

US GDP tomorrow: the good, the bad, and the possibly really ugly

Tomorrow we get the preliminary official estimate of US Q1 GDP. Like all GDP reads, this is a backward-looking figure, but it does give an idea of whether the economy is stronger or weaker than consensus expectations, and that matters a lot for the interest rate outlook.

The consensus estimate is for a slowdown from Q4’s 3.4% to 2.5%, which is still far from recession territory.

But Bloomberg reported last week that economists have been upping their expectations given the stream of recent indicators surprising to the upside. Survey respondent signaled 2.4% GDP growth for Q1, up from 2.2% in last month’s survey. As recently as January, expectations were for only 1.5%.

(chart via Bloomberg)

The GDPNow model from the Atlanta Fed, which has typically had a better track record at predicting the end figures, is pointing to US GDP Q1 growth of 2.9%, up from its data-based estimate of 2.4% just over a week ago.

(chart via the Atlanta Fed)

But, there may be some clouds on the horizon.